One truly nice weather day before humidity, storms, and heat surge in NJ again

The Bottom Line

Most of New Jersey is pretty waterlogged after Monday’s pounding rain and intense thunderstorms, as several spots picked up over 3 inches of total rainfall. Now, we get a one-day break from tropical humidity and storms, as Tuesday is shaping up to be the one truly pleasant day of the week. Sun and clouds, dry weather, manageable humidity, seasonable 80s — literally nothing to complain about here. Humidity ramps up again on Wednesday, as a warm front arrives. That front will also spark a few showers and thunderstorms, lifting from south to north throughout the day. And then we are stuck in a hot, humid, stormy weather pattern for the duration. New Jersey’s next heat wave kicks off on Thursday, with a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible Thursday, Friday, and Saturday too. Daily high temperatures in the 90s are forecast to last about a week this time around.

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Weather Hazards

Tuesday is all good. The weather is dry, comfortable, and quiet, with no major alarm bells to ring. Literally the only snag is an elevated risk of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore.

A strong thunderstorm or localized downpour is possible on Wednesday, although warm fronts are not usually responsible for widespread violent weather. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered, hit-or-miss, and generally tame. Still, any thunderstorm can produce lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty wind.

The biggest upcoming weather hazard will be building heat and humidity. Widespread temperatures in the 90s, combined with dew points rising well into the 70s, could push the heat index close to 100 degrees for several days in a row. That puts New Jersey back near the border of dangerous heat territory. A long string of heat advisories and warnings may be needed starting Thursday, continuing through the weekend and part of next week too.

Climatological Context

August 4 is the 216th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 85 to 86 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 66 to 69 degrees.

August is, on average, New Jersey’s second hottest and second wettest month of the year.

Tuesday

Tuesday has the distinction of being the only day this week without a rain chance in the forecast. That alone makes it a winner.

As New Jersey settles into a slightly cooler and much drier air mass, we have enjoyed a comfortable and even crisp morning. Mainly in the 60s, even falling into the 50s in the northwest hills.

There are still some broken clouds streaming through southern and eastern New Jersey, but the weather is dry and fair. Expect a mix of sun and clouds through the day, comfortably warm temperatures, and manageable humidity. Highs will reach the lower to mid 80s through the afternoon.

This is easily the nicest weather day of the week. A great opportunity to get some yardwork done, go for an extra-long walk with the dog, play with the kids outside, relax by the pool, or enjoy National Night Out festivities hosted by police departments all over New Jersey.

Tuesday night stays quiet and partly cloudy. Lows will dip into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

By late Wednesday, the air will feel very different. Thicker, sweatier, and more tropical again. Yuck.

A warm front will lift through New Jersey, bringing more clouds, a noticeable uptick in humidity, and a few showers and thunderstorms. Those showers and storms will generally lift from south to north throughout the day. They will be hit-or-miss and spread out through the daytime hours, so Wednesday may become a “carry the umbrella” kind of day.

This does not look like an especially intense storm setup. A localized downpour or stronger cell is possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

High temperatures will reach the lower 80s, although the humidity will make it feel heavier and stickier.

Thursday

New Jersey’s next heat wave begins. Our first one in over three weeks, believe it or not — rather unusual for middle of summer.

Skies will be mostly sunny, temperatures will climb to around 90 degrees, and humidity will be high. There is also the chance of some afternoon or evening thunderstorm activity.

Friday & Beyond

We're really in the steam cooker through the extended forecast, with heat and humidity extending through the weekend and likely part of next week.

Friday looks partly sunny with highs in the lower 90s. Add in the humidity, and the heat index (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) may approach 100 degrees.

A late-day shower or thunderstorm will be possible again Friday, although it looks more isolated than on Thursday.

The steamy, stormy pattern should continue into the weekend: 90s, high humidity, and daily pop-up thunderstorm chances.

Humidity may dial back slightly by Sunday and Monday, but the heat will remain. Current long-range models show a cooldown around Wednesday of next week. But that's far in the distance, and lots can change between now and then.

I hope your air conditioner is ready for another extended stretch of operation, and you're ready to sweat and stay hydrated. In the meantime, please take advantage of our one-day break and enjoy the lower humidity and seasonable temperatures while they last!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.