NJ’s weather stays quiet: Cool mornings, mild afternoons

The Bottom Line

Cool mornings. Mild afternoon. Dry, generally sunny weather. Lather, rinse, repeat.

New Jersey has seen a lot of quiet weather lately — extending all the way back to the beginning of the summer. So it should not be surprising that high pressure and pleasant conditions continue to dominate our weather headlines here. And it should not be surprising that drought concerns continue to spiral, as lawns turn brown and waterways continue to drop.

When is New Jersey's next substantial chance of rain? I really don't know. There's nothing for the next 10 to 14 days, at least. That will take us past the midpoint of October with no measurable rain for much of the state.

Meanwhile, all eyes in the meteorological world are on Hurricane Milton in the Gulf of Mexico. One of the strongest hurricanes ever observed, it is still aiming for a Florida landfall late Wednesday. No hyperbole — it is going to be a catastrophic, devastating storm.

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Tuesday

The big weather headline here is sunny, dry weather. And cooler, more October-ish temperatures.

Tuesday will end up about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Monday. Still quite pleasant though.

There is a chill in the air Tuesday morning. I usually use 50 degrees as my threshold for "jacket weather," and most of inland New Jersey is below that benchmark to start the day.

Abundant sunshine will push temperatures to around 70 degrees by Tuesday afternoon. You may see some extra fair-weather clouds through the afternoon. But again, we will stay completely dry. No weather problems at all.

Tuesday night will be clear and cool again. Look for average low temperatures around the upper 40s.

Wednesday

More of the same. Sunshine and 70-ish degrees. It may turn a bit breezy late-day, as a weak cold front slides through. Still no rain.

Thursday

Thursday will turn even cooler, with a stiff northwesterly breeze reinforcing the chill in our new air mass.

High temperatures will be limited to the lower 60s — that will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for early-mid October.

Most of the state should see sunshine on Thursday. However, the southern end of the state could meet some clouds along the northern edge of Hurricane Milton. Rain stays far away — I do not see Milton showers progressing north of about North Carolina.

Friday

By Friday morning, our newly refreshed cool air mass might allow for the coldest corners of the Garden State to dip into the 30s. That would be the higher elevations of northwestern New Jersey and the middle of the Pine Barrens. And it could get cold enough for the first frost of the season. Not every model paints a frosty scenario — a blanket of clouds could keep temperatures just warm enough to avoid it.

Otherwise, I have no bad things to say about Friday. Sunshine returns, with high temperatures improving to the mid 60s.

The Weekend & Beyond

In a surprising twist, the weekend looks warmer. Temperatures will push well into the 70s, thanks to a southwesterly wind.

Unsurprisingly, there is little to no chance of rain through the weekend. Some model guidance paints an isolated shower around Sunday into Monday, as our next cold front arrives. But it is hardly even worth mentioning at this point.

Another cooldown will ensue next week, as thermometers get knocked back into the 60s again. This is how fall works in New Jersey — each successive cold front brings us closer and closer to winter. I just really wish we would see some rain soon, so we can stop worrying about drought and wildfire danger heading into the dry season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.