NJ weather: Wet weather returns by the weekend, warmer temps too

The Bottom Line

We sure have enjoyed some beautiful Spring weather around most of New Jersey lately. (Aside from the gusty on-shore wind, of course.) Sunshine, dry air, and 70+ degree temperatures were a welcome change of pace from last week's sog-fest.

After 5 blustery days in a row, I'm happy to report the fierce on-shore wind will become lighter on Wednesday. Once the wind direction shifts — this weekend — temperatures are really going to take off.

However, remember that coastal storm system that soaked New Jersey last weekend? Of course you do. That's still sitting and spinning over the western Atlantic Ocean, and will be a driver of more unsettled weather in the coming days. Meaning the reemergence of rain. I don't see any washouts in the forecast. But unfortunately, the best chance of rain will coincide with the weekend.

Wednesday

Wednesday will start exactly how Tuesday ended. Mostly sunny skies, dry air, and dry weather. But we do have some subtle changes to talk about.

Temperatures have fallen to about 50 degrees to start the day. This could be our last chilly "jacket weather" morning for a while.

Change #1: The wind will lighten up a bit Wednesday. It's still going to be breezy, especially close to the coast, with occasional gusts over 20 mph.

Change #2: Dew points going up. More humidity in the atmosphere. It won't necessarily be enough to make it feel sticky or steamy. But increased humidity will prevent temperatures from crashing too low overnight.

Clouds will blow in from the ocean at times on Wednesday, but I think skies will remain bright overall. High temperatures will reach the lower 70s for most of the state. The Shore will stay cooler, closer to 60 degrees, due to that on-shore wind.

Wednesday night, clouds will continue to thicken up. We might even see some sprinkles or light showers drift ashore through early Thursday morning. Overnight low temperatures will bottom out around the mid 50s.

Thursday

A decent Spring day. It will be mostly cloudy and dry. Temperatures will come down a bit, due to the sky cover. Look for highs in the upper 60s.

Even though the wind will be a non-factor, it will still blow off the cool ocean. So the Jersey Shore will be the cool spot in the state, likely in the lower 60s or so.

Friday

Skies will be pretty cloudy. And I have to include a shower chance in the forecast. (Although some forecast models keep NJ completely dry.) High temperatures will remain seasonably mild, near 70 degrees.

The Weekend

Well, it will be way nicer than last weekend — although that's not hard.

As the stalled coastal storm system merges with a piece of energy to the west, we will see rain spread into New Jersey on Saturday. I think "scattered showers and thunderstorms" is the best description. For now, the best chance for wet weather would be in the morning hours Saturday. The afternoon should dry out a bit, with some peeks of sun. Despite the unsettled sky, high temperatures should reach the lower 70s.

Sunday will be the nicer, drier, and warmer day of the weekend. Model guidance has actually backed off the idea of wet weather on Sunday, but I'm keeping the chance of late-day showers alive. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny. And temperatures will be nice and warm, pushing into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

The Extended Forecast

Monday has the makings of a warm, almost summerlike day. Sunny and breezy, with highs in the lower 80s away from the coast? Wow.

Another series of cold fronts will cool temperatures through the middle of next week. Along with additional rain chances. But I still favor temperatures mainly on the warm side heading into the second half of May.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.