NJ weather: Warming up, thawing out, heavy rain coming

It's still cold. 20 degrees Tuesday morning. And highs Tuesday afternoon will just barely touch the freezing mark, in the lower to mid 30s. At least skies will be sunnier and winds will be lighter than Monday. The thaw really ramps up Wednesday, as we climb into the seasonable 40s. And then 50s are ahead for Thursday into Friday. That will coincide with our next storm system rolling in, which really looks to soak us Friday morning. A half-inch to inch of rain is looking likely, followed by another big blustery cooldown into the weekend. There is no better snowmelt machine than nice, warm rain - although that may raise some extra ponding and flooding issues.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Still cold

I want to swing Tuesday's forecast in a very positive light. Yes, it is cold — even in the dead of winter in January or February, this would qualify as an unseasonably cold day.

But at least skies will be sunnier, winds will be calmer, and temperatures will be slightly warmer on Tuesday compared to Monday. Good news all around.

The morning is starting around 20 degrees, with a fiery sunrise. Expect mostly sunny skies, a light breeze, and high temperatures around 30 to 35 degrees. That means a good part of the state should pop above freezing for a few hours Tuesday afternoon.

Of course, anything that melts during the day will refreeze again Tuesday night, as lows dip into the mid 20s. You may spot a few visiting clouds in the evening hours, then the overnight hours should be clear and calm.

Wednesday NJ weather: Really thawing out

Wednesday's high temperatures push to about 40 to 45 degrees. That's better — just a degree or two below normal for this time of year. We should get some more good snowmelt as a result.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds, and again a light breeze. A sprinkle is possible in the afternoon, otherwise it will be a dry day.

Thursday NJ weather: Increasing clouds, increasing temperatures

Thursday's temperatures will push closer to 50 degrees. (And thermometers will keep warming through Thursday night as even warmer, more humid air arrives.)

Along with the increase in temps will come a steady increase in cloud cover.

Model guidance is pointing toward a dry day Thursday. At least I hope so. The NAM model does show a hint of a sprinkle in the morning — if that comes to pass, it could take the form of freezing drizzle, which could lead to an icy situation in spots. Again, only a slight chance, but worth watching for now.

Our next big storm system will hold off until late Thursday night, until 10 or 11 p.m. at the earliest. And that storm will be solely a rainmaker for New Jersey.

Friday NJ weather: From wet to windy

Friday will be a volatile weather day. The warmest, wettest, windiest day of the week.

Steady to heavy rain will make Friday morning's commute quite soggy. Forecast estimates have gone up, with a half-inch to an inch of total rainfall now expected. So we are looking at some pretty big puddles — not just from the rain, but also from the substantial snowmelt that comes during warm rain.

Once the rain wraps up by midday Friday, a brisk wind will kick up. While the day will start with mild temperatures in the 50s, thermometers will take a tumble through the afternoon. Chilly air will return by Friday night.

It looks like we will be back in the 30s by Saturday, and back to bundling up. Sunday may ping-pong back in the 40s.

Next week is the big Christmas week, of course. And our weather does look potentially active, with a few weak waves modeled to swing through the northeast. While there's nothing "big" on the horizon, each of these storm systems would have the capability of producing rain and/or snow (depending on temperatures, of course). Worth watching for sure, especially given how much traveling New Jerseyans will be doing before, during, and after the Christmas holiday.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center