Damp start but bright finish Friday, timing is everything for NJ’s weekend rain

The Bottom Line

Friday is a day of transition for New Jersey’s weather, as a slow-moving cold front completes its pass through the state. Spotty light showers will remain possible for the southern half of New Jersey until about lunchtime, and then sunshine should break out statewide. Humidity levels will go down, and temperatures will end up 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Thursday, making for much more comfortable and pleasant air. Most of Saturday will be fine, although cloud cover will increase. Our next storm system looks to arrive from late Saturday evening through mid-morning Sunday. And there could be some steady to heavy rain involved early Sunday, with the potential for an inch or two of total rainfall causing some ponding and flooding issues. By Sunday afternoon, sunshine returns, as we begin another dry stretch of dry, pleasant weather through at least the first half of next week.

Get our free mobile app

Weather Hazards

Friday morning’s showers are no big deal. Rainfall totals will end up around a few hundredths of an inch in South Jersey, with no flooding or severe weather concerns.

The weekend storm system, however, could have some teeth. Severe weather — wind, hail, and tornadoes — seems unlikely, especially given the primarily overnight timing. But heavy rain and flooding potential will have to stay in the back of our minds.

Forecast models have consistently spit out rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches or more for part of New Jersey by Sunday morning. If that verifies, ponding on roadways and poor-drainage flooding could become an issue for a time.

Climatological Context

September 11 is the 254th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 79 to 80 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 59 to 63 degrees.

September is, on average, New Jersey’s fourth warmest and sixth driest month of the year.

Friday

You may recall that September 11th, 2001 was a beautiful weather day here in New Jersey. 25 years ago, it was especially striking to watch tragedy unfold against the backdrop of brilliant blue skies. As we celebrate and commemorate that anniversary Friday, the weather begins a bit unsettled. But blue skies and comfortable weather will return by the afternoon, with almost identical, seasonable temperatures to 9/11.

As a slow-moving cold front finishes pushing south through New Jersey Friday morning, we will see spotty areas of rain affect mainly the southern half of the state. It will be damp at times until around midday, when our weather will finally dry out and start to clear out.

Statewide sunshine is expected through the afternoon.

So it's not a perfectly pleasant forecast for Friday. But we will see a nice transition from unsettled to brighter, nicer, more comfortable weather in the afternoon.

Morning temperatures across New Jersey are hanging out around the 70-degree mark. Highs will reach the lower 80s or so in the afternoon. Humidity will drop too, making the air less sweaty and more refreshing.

Friday night will be clear and seasonably cool, with lows on either side of 60 degrees.

Saturday

Most of Saturday looks fine, especially during the daytime hours.

Cloud cover will steadily increase from Saturday morning through afternoon. While I can not rule out an afternoon shower, most rain should hold off until late evening. High temperatures will reach around 80 degrees, which is right on target for this time of year.

If you have outdoor plans for the first weekend of Local Summer, I think you will be just fine. Beach plans should be in decent shape too, as the ocean is still nice and warm, with water temperatures between 76 and 81 degrees.

The key to our next batch of wet weather is timing. Our next storm system approaches late Saturday, with the best chance of rain kicking in between about 10 p.m. Saturday and 10 a.m. Sunday.

Sunday

It may very well be raining as you wake up Sunday morning. In fact, it could be pouring — a swath of steady to heavy rain is possible, with some forecast models showing 1 to 2 inches of rain for part of northern New Jersey by the time this storm system wraps up.

And that will do it for the one substantial rain chance in our forecast over the next five to seven days. By mid-morning Sunday, we will dry out, and skies will clear again through the afternoon.

Highs will recover into the lower to mid 80s, making for a nice, warm afternoon and end to the weekend.

Monday & Beyond

The forecast for early next week looks good too. Monday will be partly sunny and pleasant, as high temperatures settle in the upper 70s.

Tuesday will likely be the coolest day of the bunch, with morning lows potentially touching the 40s in NW NJ and afternoon highs in the mid 70s.

Wednesday should bring sunshine and highs closer to 80 degrees. Thursday will be in the 80s — the Euro model shows this may be our next chance for some raindrops, but that is not even remotely a sure bet at this time.

The Autumnal Equinox arrives September 22, just 11 days away. The atmosphere is clearly starting to shift toward "September" mode: no more 90s for a while, cooler nights, lower humidity, and only limited raindrops coming up here.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.