NJ weather: Still in the 60s for now, with two spurts of rain
The Bottom Line
A few spots hit 70 degrees on Wednesday. In the middle of February! That's not necessarily unheard of — in fact, we did not break any record highs for 2/15. (Temps were in the 70s in 1949.) But it's definitely unusual, running 20+ degrees above normal for this time of year.
We will hold on to unseasonably warm temperatures for Thursday and the first part of Friday, before colder air returns. The next 36 hours will turn active and unsettled during that transition, with two primary "spurts" of rain: Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.
By the start of the weekend, it will feel like February again.
By the end of the weekend, we will be right back on the mild side.
I highly doubt we will hit 70 Thursday, due to clouds and raindrops. While it will still be warm and springlike, our weather won't be as gorgeous as it was on Wednesday.
Sun will turn to clouds pretty quickly Thursday morning. Temperatures are all over the place — some 30s, mainly 40s, some 50s — due to varying local conditions (wind, clouds, etc.) So you may want to pop your head outside to decide whether you'll need a jacket or sweater.
We will salvage dry, reasonably pleasant weather for at least the first half of Thursday. Early sun will quickly be covered by clouds. High temperatures will reach about 60 to 65 degrees.
First raindrops will likely threaten southwestern New Jersey around or just after lunchtime. And then everyone in the state potentially gets wet through the afternoon and early evening hours.
We should catch a lull in overall rainfall activity Thursday night. But I can't rule out some lingering showers and patchy fog. You may feel some humidity in the air, preventing overnight temperatures from falling more than a few degrees, into the upper 50s.
Another day of transition, as more wet weather leads into a big blustery cooldown.
The latest model guidance regarding our cold front has pushed things slightly later. That means we will have a warmer and wetter first half of Friday. And then an afternoon and evening wind burst and cooldown.
We will start the day in the 60s. One more push of rain will arrive around daybreak Friday, lasting through at least the morning. Total rainfall may top a half-inch. Rumbles of thunder are possible.
Cold front will sweep from west to east across New Jersey between about Noon and 3 p.m. That will drive in one last line of rain. Followed by a gusty northwest wind, potentially over 30 mph.
Temperatures will fall from the 60s to the mid 40s by sunset Friday. And they'll keep dropping into the 20s by Saturday morning. Winds will calm down slowly overnight.
Back to seasonably chilly February weather. For a short while, at least.
20s in the morning. Lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. A typical February day, with sunshine and very dry air. I'm confident winds will be considerably lighter than the day before. So we can call it a pleasant day. Even though it will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler than earlier in the week.
Warming up again. Seems to be the trend of this weird winter season.
Thermometers will return to the lower 50s on Sunday. Clouds will take over the sky. And a new wrinkle — an isolated rain shower may clip the southern coast in the evening hours.
Monday & Beyond
50s are the name of the game next week. And a line of (minor) storm systems could push some inclement weather through New Jersey at times. I don't want to get too specific on the timing of raindrops yet, as there are differences among the models.
I will mention I still could see some snow chances mixed in by midweek. Again, just something to keep an eye on. Let's take things one storm system at a time.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.