Heavy snow north, icy mix and rain south, worst weather for NJ Friday evening

The latest: New Jersey declares a state of emergency, imposes some travel restrictions

The Bottom Line

Happy Boxing Day! With Christmas now in the rearview mirror, we are fully into Winter Weather Alert mode yet again, staring down a potentially messy storm system arriving Friday afternoon and evening.

This one is not just a "snow" storm for New Jersey — sleet and rain contribute to treacherous travel conditions, but limit overall snow accumulations for most of the state. Conditions will vary, depending on which part of the Garden State you are in. That is why this snowfall forecast literally ranges from 0 to 10 inches.

The brunt of the storm is still expected Friday evening, potentially starting right around sunset. That is when you want to hunker down and stay put if at all possible. Conditions should improve by midday Saturday.

I have no doubt this will become our 5th snow event of the 2025-26 season. Let's take one more stab at a specific snow/sleet/rain forecast — I have broken the state into four zones to describe forecast snowfall and impacts.

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Timeline

Friday Afternoon... As of this writing (10 a.m. Friday), radar is already picking up on some light snow showers just west of New Jersey. And this will be the case through most of the afternoon. Conversational, non-accumulating light snow, mainly to the north and west. No travel concerns so far. It will stay mostly cloudy and cold, with high temperatures only in the 30s.

Friday Evening... After about 4 or 5 o'clock, winter storm conditions will ramp up quickly, as heavier bands of precipitation arrive from the west. At first, this will be straight snow falling from the sky for most locations, heavy at times. But as the evening hours press on, the storm will 1.) get even heavier, and 2.) be influenced by an influx of warm air just above the surface. As a result, sleet will likely mix in for central and southern New Jersey. I call this an "icy mix," which does not accumulate as rapidly or effectively as plain snow. But road conditions will be slick and visibility could be very low at times.

Early Saturday Morning... Beyond Midnight, those heavy snow, sleet, and rain bands should begin to calm and become more scattered. Snow will continue to accumulate overnight, especially to the north. Travel will remain challenging.

Saturday Morning... After daybreak, precipitation (snow, sleet, and rain) should really be winding down around the state. We should be done with substantial accumulating snow at this point, allowing road crews to get ahead of the storm. Still, spotty snow/rain showers will remain possible through the morning as the storm departs, especially along the eastern edge of New Jersey.

Saturday Afternoon/Night... Likely dry with peeks of sun. Temperatures only in the 30s, with a chilly breeze. A hard freeze is expected at night, with lows in the 20s, so any melt water or residual snow will likely ice up by Sunday morning.

Warnings & Advisories

19 of New Jersey's 21 counties fall under a warning or advisory for this storm, cautioning of tricky or even downright dangerous travel conditions.

The National Weather Service has issued the following official alerts for the following NJ counties for the following times.

Winter Storm Warning
—1 p.m. Friday to 10 a.m. Saturday... Morris, Sussex, and Warren.
—3 p.m. Friday to 10 a.m. Saturday... Middlesex, inland Monmouth, and Somerset.
—4 p.m. Friday to 1 p.m. Saturday... Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union.

Winter Weather Advisory
—3 p.m. Friday to 10 a.m. Saturday... Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, coastal Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem.

No warnings or advisories at this time
—Atlantic and Cape May.

North of I-78: 6 to 10 inches

This coldest corner of the state should see almost all snow for the duration, with limited sleet mixed in at times. As a result, far northern New Jersey will see the biggest snow accumulations of this storm. I have increased my best snowfall estimate to about 6 to 10 inches for the area along and north of Interstate 78. Some model guidance goes even higher along the northern edge of NJ, closer to 12+ inches, showing heavier snow bands in play. At the same time, some guidance is on the low side, less than 6 inches, due to warm air and sleet. My final call represents a fairly confident, middle-of-the-road prediction for heavy, plowable, significant snowfall.

Between I-195 and I-78: 3 to 6 inches

Through the middle part of the state, approximately between Interstates 78 and 195, you are almost certainly going to see shovelable snow and poor road conditions. But that icy mix of sleet and snow will limit accumulations during the brunt of the storm. That is why I have lowered snowfall expectations here slightly, to 3 to 6 inches. I am concerned about underperformance in this sector — sleet and even rain becoming more prevalent, and snow becoming even more limited — but I think "moderate snow" is the best description here.

Between AC Expressway and I-195: 1 to 3 inches

This is where the forecast gets really tricky. And where this really will not be a "snow" storm. Yes, you will see spurts of snow, potentially leading to light accumulations. But sleet and rain will be the predominant precipitation types through the height of the storm, leading to a mess rather than pretty, fluffy snow. Expect 1 to 3 inches of slushy, icy accumulation for central-southern New Jersey, between Interstate 195 and the Atlantic City Expressway. Even coastal areas could see a little bit of snow and ice here.

South of AC Expressway: 0 to 1 inch

It has become very clear that "zero snowfall" is a real possibility for far southern New Jersey, below the Atlantic City Expressway. While a coating of snow and light icing due to sleet is possible, especially to the west, I would expect mainly wet conditions here. I am admittedly leaning on the low end of my 0 to 1 inch forecast for this zone.

Final Thoughts

It is not a nor'easter. It is not a blizzard. It could approach major storm limits in North Jersey. In general, this Boxing Day burst of wintry weather is one of those messy storms that is easy to describe but difficult to forecast and quantify.

Hopefully the big bullet points of this forecast ring loud and clear for you. Accumulating snow and ice will lead to messy travel. The worst of the storm is expected to arrive Friday evening. The farther north in New Jersey you go, the more wintry it will be.

Our entire team will continue to bring you the latest critical information before, during, and after the storm. (I'll be covering radio forecasts through Friday afternoon and evening.) Thanks for sticking with us, be careful out there, and enjoy the snow/ice/rain!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.