NJ weather: Only one steamy, stormy, nasty day coming up

The Bottom Line

Ahhh! The heat wave is broken. After 7 days in a row of 90+ degree temperatures and 3 days of 100+ degree temperatures in New Jersey, Monday's hotspot was "only" 88. The day had an "fall" feel to it, with plummeting humidity levels, generally below-normal temps, and that wicked wind. (Top wind gust was 52 mph, by the way.)

Tuesday will be less windy and still nice and dry. Low humidity is always a treat in summertime. However, Tuesday will turn warmer, as temperatures push back to around 90 degrees.

Wednesday is the "one day" I reference in the headline of this post. Steamy then stormy. Heat advisory followed by the potential for severe weather.

Pleasant weather returns for Thursday and Friday, before another chance of unsettled, soupy weather builds in for the last weekend of June.

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Tuesday

It's a great morning. Crystal clear skies, with a bit of haze. Comfortable temperatures mainly in the 60s, thanks to humidity levels in the basement. And only a light breeze.

I am calling Tuesday a nice day. Even though it will be very warm — near 90 degrees — it will not be humid and sticky, plus our weather stays completely dry. Skies will be mostly sunny until about mid-afternoon, when a few clouds will build in.

Keep in mind, our normal high temperature here in late June is around 84 or 85 degrees. So 90+ is hotter than normal, although not by much.

A sea breeze should develop at the Jersey Shore, keeping temperatures cooler at the beaches. The rip current risk is down to Low as of Tuesday.

Tuesday night stays quiet and fairly comfortable. Expect partly sunny skies and low temps around 70.

Wednesday

Meh. It's a one-day burst of sweltering heat and suffocating humidity, which will help to fuel strong thunderstorms late-day.

High temperatures Wednesday will reach the lower to mid 90s across most of the state. Exceptions: North Jersey and the Jersey Shore will probably see 80s. The southwesterly breeze will be noticeable, but not too strong — just enough to keep the hot air moving around.

A Heat Advisory has already been issued for the hottest parts of New Jersey, in effect from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. Wednesday. The heat index (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will likely come close to 100 degrees. That is when the risk for heat-related illness shoots way up, right on the edge of what I call "dangerous heat".

The daytime hours on Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds. In this kind of soupy, steamy air mass, a popup shower or thunderstorm is realistically possible at any time. But by and large, Wednesday's daytime hours look dry.

Wednesday night, an approaching cold front is expected to fire off a round of strong to severe thunderstorms. The timing of these storms has shifted a bit later, after 9 or 10 p.m. That evening timeframe is a good thing, as the atmosphere will lose some of its "oomph" once temperatures start to cool post-sunset.

Having said that, we will still have to watch for gusty winds and heavy rain. There is a slight chance for some hail and/or a tornado as well. Things could get nasty for a couple hours Wednesday night.

According to the latest model guidance, storms may fizzle as they approach the coast — at the very least, I expect them to become weaker and less severe as they charge south and east.

Thursday

By daybreak Thursday morning, a lingering shower may be leftover right along the coast. But in general, we will enjoy improving weather conditions throughout the day, thanks to the effects of that cold front.

Once again, dew points and humidity levels will drop steadily. So it will get way more comfortable.

Thursday should be a bit cooler too, although still in the 80s. Somewhere in the state may just barely touch 90 degrees, which would technically make this our third heat wave of the year.

Clouds should give way to sunshine on Thursday, making for a nice afternoon and evening.

Friday

Friday's forecast looks fantastic. Mostly sunny, with low humidity and a light breeze. Highs in the lower 80s. Zero chance of rain. Two thumbs way up.

The Weekend & Beyond

The weekend outlook gets a bit murky, as our weather turns unsettled and the air turns soupy again.

Previously, I had said the best chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms would be Sunday. Now, I am not so sure. I don't think either weekend day will be a total washout. But there will be some rain around, and you may get wet at some point. (Yes, we need rain for drought and wildfire reasons — but I would prefer it does not happen during our precious summer weekends!)

Once we get past Wednesday's stormy weather, I think we will have a better view of the weekend. Specifically, when you will get wet and when you will stay dry..

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.