NJ weather: Nice Monday, tropical storm Tuesday, nice Wednesday
The Bottom Line
As we wake up on this Monday morning, there is a tropical storm about 700 miles away. All eyes are on Isaias, set to bring bands of heavy rain and strong winds to New Jersey on Tuesday. Our previous watch was upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning as of 5 a.m. That joins a Flash Flood Watch and High Surf Advisory, highlighting the biggest potential Isaias issues.
Following my usual format, this 5 day forecast post will feature a quick overview of Tropical Storm Isaias's timing and potential impacts. I have published a separate weather blog entry with a detailed breakdown.
No big problems during the day. Radar shows a few showers fizzling as they enter southwestern New Jersey, and we'll see some clouds early on too. Look for sunshine breaking out by midday. Although humidity and temperatures dial back slightly from Sunday, it will still be a very warm and sticky day. High temperatures will pop to near 90 degrees away from the immediate coast.
A moderate risk of rip currents continues along the Jersey Shore, with 2 to 3 foot ocean waves Monday. Use caution in the water, and be sure to pay attention to the flags and all lifeguard instructions.
Scattered rain will push into southern New Jersey early Monday evening, spreading to North Jersey by Midnight.
Around sunrise, scattered rain will become steady rain. And then prime time for Isaias's impacts here in New Jersey will be about late morning through late evening.
Tropical storm conditions are technically defined by wind. And the winds will be fiercest along the Jersey Shore, which will end up on the east (right) side of Isaias's center. I estimate gusts of 70+ mph are possible during the peak of the storm — that's pretty intense, and could cause some widespread power outages and tree damage. As for the rest of the state, 50+ mph wind gusts will howl, which is nothing to sneeze at.
Bands of heavy rain are likely, especially along the western edge of the state. Rainfall totals will range from about an inch (give or take) near the Jersey Shore to 3+ inches along the Delaware River. Model consensus puts the heaviest rain from Isaias just west of New Jersey. If that moisture fetch wobbles even slightly to the east, totals of 6+ inches will be possible here.
Coastal flooding will be limited to the minor category, with about a foot of storm surge. Tuesday's precarious high tide cycles will occur around 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. on the oceanfront. Beaches will be battered by 10-foot ocean waves.
The storm will exit and conditions will improve rapidly Tuesday night.
An amazingly beautiful summer day. Rain and wind could linger through the pre-dawn hours. Then skies become mostly sunny, with a continuing stiff breeze. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s, with reduced humidity.
Thursday could get a bit unsettled, with a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms late-day. Otherwise, look for partly sunny skies and high temps in the lower to mid 80s.
Friday & Beyond
Friday will be almost identical to Thursday, with some sun, a few storms, and mid 80s. And I like the way the weekend forecast is shaping up. High temperatures return to the 90-degree mark — not completely unordinary, as we're at the tail end of the hottest part of summer. Skies look to stay partly to mostly sunny, with very limited rain chances.
Lots more Isaias info and insight coming shortly (literally as fast as I can type it out and piece it together). Keep an eye on my blog, social media, and your mobile app notifications for the latest.