NJ’s midweek storm system could be a rain and wind machine

As the final week of October begins, all eyes are on a complicated midweek setup that will once again bring solid rain and wind to New Jersey. Monday stays quiet, mostly sunny, dry, and fairly cool. 30s and 40s in the morning will warm to near 60 in the afternoon. Clouds will start to increase Tuesday, with some patchy coastal drizzle. Spotty showers will be possible statewide Wednesday. And then the big push of rain and wind is looking likely during the day on Thursday. There are still some question marks and hazy details to figure out in terms of rainfall totals, top wind gusts, coastal impacts, etc. Needless to say, it is going to be a busy week.

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Monday NJ weather: Quiet and dry for now

Coming off a decent autumn weekend, Monday will be reasonably pleasant too. Just definitely on the cool side, especially in the morning.

In fact, this may be the coldest morning of the season so far, with widespread 30s and 40s on the temperature map around the state. By late morning, mostly sunny skies will help to nudge thermometers upward, taking the bite off the chill.

Monday will stay dry, with a light northerly breeze and fair skies. High temperatures will reach about 55 to 60 degrees. Once again, just slightly below normal for late October.

Monday night will be chilly once again, with a few clouds to the south. Look for low temperatures on either side of 40 degrees.

Tuesday NJ weather: Only minor nuisances

New Jersey's weather will start to slip downhill on Tuesday, especially the farther south and east you go.

For North Jersey, sunshine should once again win the sky. Across the southern half of the state, clouds will steadily increase throughout the day. And along the coast, I think some patchy drizzle may develop by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Nothing heavy or steady — just some dampness hanging in the air.

High temperatures on Tuesday will come down to the mid 50s statewide.

Wednesday NJ weather: Breezy, spotty showers possible

Wednesday turns a bit more unsettled, as skies become mostly cloudy to overcast across the entire state. Plus, as our main storm system inches closer, we will see an increasing chance of rain.

Wet weather is not a guarantee on Wednesday. But some models — including the mesoscale NAM — pumps out some spotty rain, especially through the second half of the day. I hope we will have better clarity on this question mark as it gets closer.

High temperatures during Wednesday's dreary and potentially damp day would once again get stuck in the mid 50s, at best.

Thursday NJ weather: Wet and windy

Thursday daytime looks like prime time for the "brunt" of this week's storm.

I want to point out that this storm system setup is very different from the last one, two weeks ago. Whereas that one was centered over the ocean, this one's primary area of low pressure will be over land — west of New Jersey. That means, instead of a coastal wind and wave generator, this one looks like a rain and inland wind (and possibly severe weather) machine.

At this point, I think we have the general storm timeline locked in. After those spotty rain showers ramp up on Wednesday, periods of heavy, steady rain look likely from early Thursday morning through the afternoon. Rainfall should dial back around sunset Thursday evening, with final showers ending by Friday morning.

The big piece of the puzzle missing here are the exact impacts:
—How much rain will fall — a healthy half inch, or a heavier two to three inches? While we may have to raise some flooding alarm bells, a solid soaking would be great after such a long stretch of dry weather.
—How hard will the wind gust — 40, 50, or 60 mph? Sporadic power outages could become a problem.
—Will we escape with "only" minor coastal flooding and beach erosion — or will it be more serious? Again, I highly doubt it will be as dramatic as the Columbus Day nor'easter.
—Will there be thunder and lightning — or even severe weather including thunderstorm-driving wind gusts and/or an isolated tornado? Given the latest storm track, we would be in the right "quadrant" of the storm for such spin-ups.

Most importantly, will the rain and stormy conditions clear out in time for Friday's Halloween festivities? As it stands right now, the answer is yes — all models show final raindrops ending by Friday morning at the latest followed by late-day clearing. However, that is a little too close for comfort. And regardless, trick-or-treat time will be breezy and mostly cloudy and relatively cool. So plan your costumes accordingly.

One thing is for sure. No snow. At least, not this time around.

Stay tuned for future updates as we continue to refine the timing and impacts of this storm further.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.