NJ weather: Talking about heat, storms, and far-away Tropical Storm Erin

Wednesday will be another hot and humid day - Jersey heat wave day #5, if you're keeping score. Additionally, this will be the first time this month we are going to see a chance for widespread thunderstorms. First storms will fire up this afternoon through this evening, with the usual concerns in play - flooding downpours, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. Thursday will stay muggy with a spot thunderstorm chance. And then we'll fall into some nicer weather - both Friday and Saturday will be sunnier and less humid days.

There is a lot of hype swirling around social media regarding Tropical Storm Erin, expected to strengthen into the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2025 within 24 to 36 hours. It is currently 2,600 miles southeast of New Jersey. That's far. No one — I mean no one — has a read on exactly where this storm is going to go. So only time will tell whether it swings close enough to the U.S. East Coast for any weather impacts here in New Jersey next week. Rough surf and rip currents are almost certain as it gets closer.Heat and humidity will help to fuel a round of scattered strong thunderstorms, with prime time for storms around dinnertime. (Accuweather)

Wednesday starts with some areas of fog and low clouds. Temperatures are in the lower 70s — a bit sticky, but not too bad for a summer morning.

High temperatures Wednesday will reach the lower 90s. The Jersey Shore will catch some relief with a sea breeze. Not quite hot enough to ring alarm bells or issue advisories for heat, but obviously you will want to stay cool, stay hydrated, and take care of yourself out there.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.

Scattered thunderstorms may creep across the Delaware River starting in the afternoon. Prime time for storms will most likely be in the early evening / dinnertime hours — between 5 and 8 p.m. And then I have to keep the chance for storms in the forecast through at least Midnight Wednesday evening.

The usual thunderstorm concerns are in play here. Downpours leading to flash flooding is probably number one — localized pockets of inch-plus rainfall are possible. Dangerous lightning is likely too. Damaging wind gusts are possible.

Bottom line: It's not an "OMG, the atmosphere is going to explode" kind of day. It's an "eyes on the sky" kind of day. Stay alert to changing weather conditions, and be ready to change plans and seek shelter if storms come to visit your area. When thunder roars, head indoors immediately.

After storms depart Wednesday night, it will stay mostly cloudy and muggy. Overnight lows will again descend to the lower 70s or so.

Thursday NJ weather: Still humid and unsettled

Thursday will look a bit blah to start. But sunshine should gradually emerge by the afternoon.

I can not rule out a few spot showers or thunderstorms at some point during the day. I do not think rain activity will be as widespread as on Wednesday. And I do not think the risk is really there for downpours or severe weather this time around.

Thursday will remain humid and very warm. High temperatures will probably come close to 90 degrees in many spots one more time.

Friday NJ weather: Nice relief

Friendlier, more seasonable weather will resume on Friday.

Humidity will dial back on Friday, with dew points dropping from the 70s to the 60s. That little drydown will be just enough to make the air more comfortable. Still sticky, but less sweaty.

Friday also won't be as hot. Latest forecasts put high temperatures in the mid 80s, typical for this time of year. We might touch 90 degrees somewhere in NJ, technically extending the heat wave. But I expect that to be the exception and not the rule.

We will enjoy plenty of sunshine throughout Friday too.

Weekend NJ weather: Looking good

Saturday should be a continuation of Friday's pleasant weather. Mostly sunny with moderate humidity. Morning lows might be in the 60s. Afternoon highs should once again reach the mid 80s.

Sunday will be the hotter day of the weekend, as thermometers potentially touch 90 degrees again.

Tropical Storm Erin: 2,600 miles from NJ

Usually, I would not even mention a storm system that is 2,600 miles away from New Jersey. But there is so much downright bad information swirling around social media already that I feel the need to play "meteorological defense" and get ahead of the hype train.

Tropical Storm Erin is over the open Atlantic Ocean, entering an area favorable for strengthening and development. It is expected to be upgraded sometime Thursday, making it the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season.

And then Erin will continue charging west, maintaining a steady track toward the northern edge of the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea. The storm will then make a gradual right turn, with the most likely storm track taking Erin's center between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next week as a major category 3 hurricane.

What happens after that? No one — and I mean no one — has that answer right now. It is way too soon, and there are far too many diverging scenarios on the table, to give a confident U.S. East Coast hit vs. miss forecast call at this time.

But some on social media are trying to do that. I have seen so many picking and choosing a worst-case scenario model forecast, or drawing a random big red arrow on a map to show that Erin could directly strike the United States. Blech.

Could it? Sure. Will it? Literally no one knows at this point.

I think it is a sure bet that New Jersey will feel rough surf and rip current issues from Erin throughout next week.

By the end of the weekend, we should have a clear picture whether Erin will pose any weather issues next week. To be clear, a complete miss is absolutely on the table here, and is the dominant solution among model guidance at this time.

Worth watching. We will see. And that's it!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.