Warm sunshine Wednesday, then sporadic rain returns through the weekend

The Bottom Line

I am declaring Wednesday to be “The Weather Winner of the Week” for New Jersey. Humidity will be going down, thanks to a weak cold front that passed through overnight. Along with dry weather, seasonably warm temperatures, and bright sunshine, it should be a very nice summer day all around. Thursday, however, will be less nice, given the arrival of our next storm system. There are some differences in rainfall timing and totals among forecast models, but they all agree that 1.) everyone in New Jersey will get wet for part of the day, 2.) it is not a total washout, and 3.) the wettest part of the day will be centered on the afternoon. I am keeping an optimistically dry and brighter forecast for Friday for now. But the weekend will have additional periods of rain, especially Saturday morning and Sunday midday. The wettest parts of the state this weekend look to be to the south and along the coast. Temperatures will likely be affected by the rain and clouds too, with highs more likely in the 70s than the 80s. Parts of the weekend will be salvageable, but unfortunately it will not be a perfect summer weekend for the Garden State this time around.

Get our free mobile app

Weather Hazards

While there is no need for major alarm bells, any of our upcoming storm systems could produce pockets of heavy rain (1+ inch) and/or isolated strong thunderstorm cells (60+ mph gusty winds). It will be important to keep plans flexible, stay vigilant, and remain "weather aware" as our weather turns stormy.

Climatological Context

August 19 is the 231st day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 84 to 85 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 65 to 68 degrees.

August is, on average, New Jersey’s second hottest and second wettest month of the year.

Wednesday

I am declaring Wednesday to be our nicest day of the week. At the very least, it will be the nicest day we see for a while.

All is well across the Garden State early Wednesday morning, as a weak cold front pushes north to south through the state. That is introducing slightly cooler and much drier air. So humidity levels will be going down, making for more comfortable conditions — always a good thing in the summertime.

Before that transition to dry air fully takes place, there could still be some fog and maybe even patchy light drizzle in spots early Wednesday morning. (Especially along the southern coast.) But the rest of the day looks very nice, very warm, and very summery.

Expect mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and highs in the mid 80s. It is another day of Goldilocks summer temperatures: not too hot, not too cold, just right.

Wednesday night stays generally quiet, with increasing clouds and low temperatures around 70 degrees.

Thursday

While Wednesday will be nice, Thursday ... not so much.

Rain will return as New Jersey’s next storm system arrives. It will not be an all-day washout, but it will be a “carry the umbrella” situation with showers, rumbles of thunder, and pockets of heavy rain possible.

Forecast models are showing a couple of different scenarios potentially playing out. One has spotty showers around from Thursday morning through early afternoon. Another holds off the rain until midday, but then turns things wetter and stormier through about dinnertime. The common thread is that everyone probably gets wet at some point, and the wettest part of the day will most likely be centered on the afternoon.

Expect mostly cloudy skies, a period of showers and thunderstorms, and highs scaling back to around 80 degrees. Keep plans somewhat flexible and keep an eye on the sky.

Friday

I am staying optimistic about Friday's forecast, keeping it dry and brighter for now.

Expect partly sunny skies, with highs in the lower 80s. It will not be a perfect blue-sky day, but it should be much more user-friendly and less unsettled than Thursday.

Could we see a stray shower at some point? Sure, especially to the south. Let's see how Thursday's storm system plays out, and how our impending weekend rain chances are setting up too.

### This Weekend & Beyond
Sigh, unfortunately the upcoming weekend is not looking perfect for New Jersey. Parts of it will be salvageable, but clouds and rain will get in the way at times.

Saturday looks cloudy, with periods of rain. Right now, I will say the wettest period on Saturday will be through the morning and midday hours. And the wettest part of the state will be southern and coastal New Jersey. High temperatures will only reach 75 to 80 degrees, held down by clouds and rain.

Sunday looks a bit better, although still mostly cloudy. And another quick round of rain is likely, centered around midday. Highs should improve into the lower 80s. But once again, the timing of raindrops will matter a lot for outdoor plans.

This is a busy time of year. Fall sports are starting up. Back-to-school preparations are in full swing. Last-minute summer vacation plans are on the calendar. Unfortunately, this unsettled, inclement weather pattern could interfere with some of that.

The good news is that extreme heat is nowhere to be found. Humidity will stay lower, and temperatures will be knocked down by clouds and rain. So while the forecast is not perfect, it is not crazy either.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.