Coastal storm is here, NJ: Wind will drive 3 rounds of coastal flooding

The coastal storm is here

The wind has started to kick up, rain has started to move in, and tide levels along the Jersey Shore are rising rapidly. New Jersey's weather is going downhill as a potent coastal storm affects the rest of the Columbus Day Weekend.

As we have discussed, the #1 concern here is coastal flooding, followed by wind-driven damage and power outages. Rain is a distant third.

The latest model guidance has dialed back a bit more on rainfall totals and wind speeds, but the next two days still read as inclement, potentially nasty weather. This weekend's stormy forecast has been the subject of a great deal of drama, as a nasty nor'easter set its sights on New Jersey. (Cue dramatic music.)

It is dramatic because we have not had a significant storm system impact New Jersey in quite a while.

It is dramatic because social media is a disease, where hype and misinformation spread like wildfire. I feel like I have had to play "meteorological defense" all week, downplaying the severity of the storm for inland New Jersey while stressing that heavy rain is not the big concern here.

It is dramatic because the "worst case scenario" earlier in the week was pretty scary — but we have since drifted from truly catastrophic rain, wind or coastal flooding. Still impactful and serious, but not necessarily historic or record-breaking.

Let's run through the stormy forecast one more time, with the latest insight and forecast information so you can plan your day and stay safe.

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Timeline

As of this writing (10 a.m.), rain has just started to push inland. Most of New Jersey has eked out a dry morning. But eventually — slowly — rain will overspread the state through the afternoon and evening hours. And everybody in the state will get wet.

Pockets of rain will continue through Sunday night and most of Monday too. There may be some localized pockets of heavy stuff, but this is mainly a "slow burn" of soaking rain. That is great news to minimize the flooding risk and help our ongoing drought concerns.

Meanwhile, the wind has started to kick up along the Jersey Shore. Gusts are already peaking over 40 mph there. Farther inland, top gusts are closer to 20 mph. It is going to be a windy, blustery day in general, especially near the coast. I expect the strongest winds to come through Sunday afternoon and evening, as the center of this coastal storm system passes by.

By Monday morning, wind speeds should subside to the "breezy" category, as the storm effects weaken and pull away from the Garden State.

Finally, the precarious coastal flooding impacts will come in three waves, coinciding with the next three high tide cycles. Midday Sunday will bring moderate to borderline major category flooding to the Jersey Shore. Sunday night's impacts will be less, more in the minor to moderate category. And then one more big push of ocean water Midday Monday will be back in the moderate to borderline major category.

By Monday night's high tide cycle, water levels should return to near-normal. (Or at least, they will stay below flood stage.)

Impacts

In general, I am holding steady on my "by the numbers" forecasts, although potentially leaning on the lower ends of these ranges based on the latest model guidance. There is still a chance for some last-minute track wiggles and overperformance, so it is worthwhile to keep in mind a slightly worst-case scenario.

—Rain... 0.5 to 1.5 inches inland, 1.5 to 3 inches coast.

—Severe Weather... Unlikely.

—Wind... 20 to 40 mph gusts inland, 40 to 60 mph coast.

—Coastal Flooding... 2 to 4 feet of storm surge, causing Moderate to Major flooding through three high tide cycles. (See "Timeline" section above for more detail.)

Advisories

A Coastal Flood Warning is posted for the entire Jersey Shore for Sunday and Monday. All tidal waterways are subject to multiple rounds of moderate to major category flooding at high tide. Water inundation may cause road closures and property damage in vulnerable, low-lying areas.

A less-severe, less-urgent Coastal Flood Advisory extends up the Delaware River. Minor flood stage is expected to be exceeded at high tide Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday.

A High Wind Warning has been issued for coastal counties from 11 a.m. Sunday through 6 a.m. Monday. This includes coastal Monmouth, coastal Ocean, coastal Atlantic, and all of Cape May counties. The warning cautions that wind gusts up to 60 mph may cause damage and power outages, and that travel may be difficult for high-profile vehicles like trucks and vans.

A less-severe, less-urgent Wind Advisory covers inland Monmouth, inland Ocean, southeastern Burlington, and inland Atlantic counties. Also for Hudson, eastern Essex, and eastern Union counties. Same potential wind-driven impacts, but with a 45 to 50 mph estimated top gust.

After the Storm

A shower may linger into Tuesday morning, and then skies will slowly clear. It may still be breezy at times, especially in coastal communities. High temperatures will be fairly pleasant, reaching into the mid 60s. But that is a hair below normal for mid-October.

Wednesday looks like a nice day, with partial sunshine and mid 60s again.

A cold front drives in our next cooler, drier air mass for the second half of the week. Highs in the 50s for Thursday and Friday will be quite cool. And frankly, quite November-ish.

Our next chance of rain unfortunately looks to come next weekend. We will talk more about that once it gets closer. Let's focus on one storm system at a time, please.

Stay Smart, Be Safe

Again, today's coastal storm is not a historic, catastrophic, record-breaking storm. But it is still impactful and serious. Especially for those who live and work along the Jersey Shore. Hopefully you are able to hunker down and watch the rain and wind and surf rage out the window. If not, please be smart and stay safe out there.

As always, our weather, traffic, news, programming, and digital teams are on-duty for the duration to bring you the latest updates. Although I anticipate this will be my only full weather blog update for the day, we will communicate any critical storm information on-air and online as needed. Thanks to my colleagues for their diligent hard work and assistance. And thanks to you for following along.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.