One more day of inclement weather and serious coastal flooding for NJ

The coastal storm rages on. New Jersey's top wind gust so far has been 62 mph at Island Beach State Park. Top rainfall totals are approaching 2 inches along the coast, with much more disappointing totals inland. And as expected, the coastal flooding and rough surf has been the most prominent and dramatic impact of the weekend. The third and final big push of tidal water is coming up Monday afternoon, and is expected to be the highest high tide of the storm. That is really the only dangerous piece of this storm left, although scattered rain and breezy to windy conditions will continue throughout Monday. Final showers will exit New Jersey Tuesday morning. And then we will enjoy drier, calmer, brighter weather through the rest of the week.

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Monday NJ weather: Coastal flooding the only big concern

Monday will not be a pretty weather day. But the only place in the state the weather will be "stormy" will once again be the Jersey Shore.

Expect scattered rain all day — pockets of wet weather, interspersed with periods of dry-ish weather. All light stuff, nothing crazy. An additional quarter-inch to half-inch of rain is possible.

It will remain windy along the coast, with regular 40+ mph gusts. For inland areas, west of the Garden State Parkway, I would call it breezy throughout Monday, with top gusts closer to 20 or 30 mph.

Skies will stay cloudy and temperatures will peak around 60 degrees, give or take.

The one big concern left from this coastal storm is one more round of coastal flooding. Oceanfront high tide will be in the 1 p.m. hour. Back bays are expected to crest in late afternoon, around 4 or 5 p.m. Widespread moderate to localized major category flooding is forecast. Especially for Ocean and Atlantic county waterways, it is expected to be up to a foot higher than Sunday afternoon's tide (which was pretty high and pretty dramatic).

There are two reasons for the added concern. First is the duration of strong winds and the wind direction. So much ocean water has been blowing against our coastline that flooding is inevitable for all tidal waterways. Plus, the back bays have not had an adequate opportunity to drain after the last two extra-high high tide cycles. The Barnegat Bay in particular will not drop below flood stage during Monday morning's low tide. So of course it is going to be precariously high as waters crest again later on.

Be prepared for significant travel issues along tidal waterways and low-lying areas near the Shore this afternoon and evening. Unfortunately, that will coincide with the Monday evening commute. Obey all road closures. You may consider parking your car on higher ground, if you usually leave it in a flood zone. Never attempt to walk, swim, or drive through flooded areas.

Once the sun sets Monday evening, any "rain" will turn showery and drizzly overnight. It will remain breezy. Low temperatures will dip a few degrees to the mid 50s or so.

Tuesday NJ weather: Improving weather

I think a few showers will linger through Tuesday morning, finally exiting the state between sunrise and mid-morning. And then the rest of Tuesday will feature slowly clearing skies and improving weather.

I'm not sure if Tuesday afternoon can be considered mostly cloudy or partly sunny. But it should be brighter and more pleasant than the weekend for sure. High temperatures will bump into the lower 60s. Still cooler than normal for mid-October.

There may be spots of minor flooding and continued rough surf on Tuesday. But the ocean will continue to calm down alongside the weather.

Wednesday NJ weather: Not bad

Wednesday has the potential to be a pleasant weather day. But it is also a cold front day for New Jersey, which adds a couple new wrinkles to the forecast.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day. A quick shower may push into the state around midday. High temperatures should reach the seasonable mid 60s.

Thursday NJ weather: Another cooldown day

An autumn chill returns to the forecast for the end of the workweek. Thursday morning looks pretty cool, with widespread 40s. If our new air mass is cold enough, I could see another round of frost Thursday morning in northwestern New Jersey. Highs on Thursday will only reach around the 60 degree mark, despite brilliant crisp sunshine.

Friday will push into the lower 60s. Saturday returns to the mid 60s. Nice fall days.

Sunday might get tricky with increasing clouds and an eventual chance of rain. Hopefully the rain holds off until Sunday night, so outdoor activities will be unaffected. If so, high temperatures on Sunday will have a shot at reaching the 70s.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.