Off-shore storm system to cause 36 hours of ‘blah’ weather for NJ

After so many nice weather days lately, our weather will take a trip downhill starting Tuesday as an off-shore area of low pressure prepares to fly by. While Tuesday will start with sunshine, clouds will increase through the afternoon. It will become increasingly breezy, and a few raindrops may lap up against the coast. A High Risk of rough surf and dangerous rip currents is posted, making it a very bad day to go swimming in the ocean. Wednesday will stay inclement and unsettled and blah - cloudy, showery, and cool - with temperatures stuck in the 60s all day. Sunshine returns on Thursday, pushing temperatures well into the 70s for the rest of the workweek.

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Tuesday NJ weather: OK start, going downhill

By the numbers, Tuesday morning is very similar to Monday morning. Clear, crisp, and cool. Temperatures to start the day range from the 40s in the northwest hills to the 50s for most of the state to the 60s along the coastal plain.

High temperatures will aim for the lower 70s Tuesday afternoon. Once again, that is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

While the first half of Tuesday looks bright and sunny, clouds will increase from the east from midday through the afternoon hours. An on-shore breeze will also kickup, especially along the Jersey Shore, probably gusting over 20 mph by dinnertime.

Because of that wind, a high risk of rough surf and dangerous rip currents is posted for the Shore today. It is absolutely not a good day to go swimming in the ocean.

The other nuisance Tuesday — and a new addition to the forecast — is the possibility of a shower or sprinkle lapping up against the coast starting in the afternoon too. Just an effect of our weather going downhill as coastal low pressure slides closer.

More of the same unsettled weather is expected Tuesday night. Skies become mostly cloudy, with a spot shower possible. Low temperatures will dip into the lower 60s overnight.

Wednesday NJ weather: Cloudy, showery, cool

"Blah" is the operative word for Wednesday. It will not be a very nice weather day overall — but there is nothing dangerous or severe in the forecast here.

Expect cloudy skies and occasional showers, especially to the south and east. Total rainfall may exceed a quarter-inch in spots if a band of rain really gets going.

Meanwhile, the combination of clouds, rain, and on-shore breeze will prevent temperatures from budging much. Highs will only reach the upper 60s at best. Given the lack of sunshine, you may be reaching for a jacket throughout the day.

There is a chance for some clearing late-day Wednesday, but don't bet on it.

Just remember: As dreary, damp, and dismal Wednesday is, we do need to see occasional rain. 54 percent of New Jersey is still in the "Abnormally Dry" category. (Although last week's Drought Monitor report does not take into account our healthy weekend soaking.)

Thursday NJ weather: Sunshine returns

Thursday will be a brighter, better weather day. And we will warm right back up again too.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies from the get-go Thursday. 60-ish degrees in the morning will quickly warm to the upper 70s by the afternoon. The breeze will be light, humidity will be low. It should be a very nice mid-September day.

Friday NJ weather: Seasonable temperatures

Friday looks good too, with solid sunshine for the majority of the day, dry weather, and seasonable temperatures back in the upper 70s. Clouds may start to roll in by late afternoon.

The GFS model puts clouds and showers over New Jersey on Saturday, but it stands alone in that solution. I'm in a "wait and see" mode before I really believe weekend plans will be affected by soggy weather. Instead, I think we will see partial sunshine and 70s (at least) through this second weekend of September. Nice, warm 80s probably return for early next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.