NJ stays warm Thursday and Friday before a weekend cooldown and wetdown

The Bottom Line

Change is in the air in New Jersey’s weather forecast, as spotty rain returns and temperatures start to fluctuate in summer’s final days. Most of Thursday will be nice, although definitely warm, humid, and summer-ish. A shower may brush past North Jersey in the afternoon, and then more widespread spotty showers are possible through the evening hours. Friday dries out and stays warm for one more day. Then this weekend turns cooler, as highs slide from the 80s to the 70s. Saturday should stay dry, but scattered rain is in the forecast for Sunday. The current outlook keeps most of the state rain-free through Sunday morning before getting soaked later on. By next week, as unsettled weather continues, we will be talking about high temperatures only in the 60s — decidedly not summer-ish anymore.

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Weather Hazards

Thursday's showers largely fall into the "no big deal category" although a rumble of thunder and/or localized downpour are possibilities.

Additional thunderstorms and pockets of steady rain may be in play on Sunday and again on Tuesday. But even that looks just "wet" and not necessarily "hazardous".

Climatological Context

September 17 is the 260th day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 77 to 78 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 58 to 60 degrees.

September is, on average, New Jersey’s fourth warmest and sixth driest month of the year.

Thursday

Summer vibes are back for Thursday.

Thursday morning is very different from the past few mornings — it is not crisp and comfortable anymore. Temperatures are starting the day on the sticky side, close to 70 degrees. That is about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday morning.

Thanks a lot, humidity.

Thursday will probably turn out to be our warmest day of the week. Expect periods of sun and clouds, moderate to high humidity, and high temperatures between 80 and 85 degrees. It will feel warm, sticky, and definitely summer-ish.

In terms of inclement weather, most of the day looks fine. Shower may clip North Jersey in the afternoon, but the better rain chance will hold off until Thursday evening as a cold front slides through. A round of spotty showers will be possible statewide. While a rumble of thunder or localized downpour are not completely out of the question, we are really just looking at a brief hit of rain.

Skies should start clearing by around midnight, with overnight lows in the upper 60s.

Friday

We are sitting right at the top of the temperature roller coaster. And we will squeeze out one more genuinely warm day on Friday before things start to tumble downward again.

Skies will turn mostly sunny Friday and humidity levels will slowly dial back. So it should be a pretty nice day, with dry weather all around. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s, still slightly above seasonal normals.

This may be the last time New Jersey sees widespread 80+ degree temperatures for a while.

Saturday

Here comes the cooldown. But again, there is still a lot to like about Saturday's forecast, as we start the weekend with dry, calm weather.

Expect increasing clouds with high temperatures in the lower 70s. That is a good 10 degrees cooler than Thursday and Friday.

Sunday & Beyond

Unsettled weather returns on Sunday, but the day should not be a total washout.

Baseline forecast: Mostly cloudy to overcast skies, with high temperatures mainly in the 70s. North Jersey will be the cloudiest and wettest part of the state, so temps may be stuck in the 60s.

In terms of rain chances on Sunday, I think only North Jersey will get wet in the morning as the initial band of scattered showers sets up. Then in the afternoon and evening, more widespread and pervasive rainfall will take over the state.

Total rainfall could exceed an inch for some, so things could turn pretty wet for a time Sunday into Sunday night. Your outdoor plans could be heavily affected. I would keep a close eye on this forecast as it continues to evolve.

Monday stays unsettled, but trends a bit drier with just a few midday showers around. It will remain mostly cloudy with highs only in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. I think there may be a feeling of "October" in the air.

Tuesday's weather goes downhill again, with another push of widespread rain, a stiff on-shore breeze, and temperatures stuck in the 60s. As it stands now, it does not look like a nice day.

And then the weather clears for the second half of the workweek. Things dry out and skies will slowly clear. But don't expect a big warmup — long-range model guidance shows high temperatures only in the 60s and 70s for the duration. We may be done with nice warm 80s for quite a while. Just in time to savor the first week of fall.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.