NJ turns more summery: Heat, humidity, thunderstorms on the way

The Bottom Line

New Jersey's weather over the last 5 to 7 days has been very consistent. 60-ish in the morning. 70s to around 80 in the afternoon. Low humidity and pleasant weather. Some of the nicest weather days of the entire year.

Thursday will be another nice day, sunny and rain-free. However, it will be a bit different than the past several days, turning warmer and more humid.

Friday brings a couple of big weather headlines. First of all, it will be downright hot, with high temperatures inching toward 90 degrees. And thunderstorms will be a concern starting mid-afternoon Friday, which could get noisy through Friday evening.

Things will dry out, clear out, and turn more comfortable again for the entire Father's Day Weekend.

The Summer Solstice is exactly one week away. And New Jersey's summer is going to start very ... summery.

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Thursday

Comfortable start, very warm afternoon. Feeling like a typical middle-of-summer day.

Temperatures will rise from about 60 degrees Thursday morning to the mid 80s Thursday afternoon. The Jersey Shore will benefit from a nice sea breeze, keeping beaches cooler in the 70s.

Skies will remain mostly sunny — make sure you lather up on the sunscreen, as that sun will be strong. As dew points creep into the 60s, it is going to feel somewhat stickier too. But we are still far from "tropical" or "suffocating" humidity for now.

Furthermore, Thursday will stay completely dry. Usually, in a hot, moist atmosphere, we have to watch for popups. But there is no prominent spark to trigger shower/thunderstorm development Thursday. (There will be a big spark on Friday — more on that in a sec.)

Thursday night stays quiet and pleasant, with lows in the mid 60s. Not as cool as it has been. But still pretty comfortable.

Friday

Friday will not be a totally nice weather day, as we potentially battle both heat and thunderstorms.

Friday morning looks fine. All the way through at least lunchtime. The day will start with sunshine. It will be even hotter, as thermometers reach for 90 degrees in many spots. Even more humid too, with dew points approaching 70.

The big problem Friday comes in the afternoon and evening hours, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. That frontal boundary will fire off a line of thunderstorms. And given the heat and humidity in the air, those storms will likely be on the strong side.

Thunderstorm Timing... Storm cells may enter NW NJ as early as 2 or 3 p.m. Friday afternoon. Areas to the south and along the coast may remain storm-free into the early evening hours. Final showers should leave the state by late Friday evening, around 10 or 11 p.m. at the latest.

Thunderstorm Impacts... Damaging wind and localized downpours are on the table. Along with lots of lightning which, by definition, makes every thunderstorm potentially dangerous. Hail is possible. I do not see a high tornado threat, but it is worth watching. Storm intensity should weaken as they progress southeastward, due to timing (post-sunset) and temperatures (cooler, more stable air along the coast).

Thunderstorm Action Steps... Friday will be a "stay weather aware" and "keep an eye on the sky" kind of day, as everyone in the state will likely see an hour or two or stormy weather. If you have outdoor plans, you will be fine for the first half of the day. But when the sky starts to darken up and especially when thunder roars, it's time to pack it in.

Beyond the stormy weather, our new cooler, drier air mass will start to settle in Friday night. With clearing skies, low temperatures should fall into the comfortable lower 60s by Saturday morning.

Saturday

It's the last weekend of Spring! And the weather forecast looks really good.

We fall right back into sunny, seasonably warm, and not-humid weather on Saturday. Once again, maybe in the running for one of the best weather days of 2024?

High temperatures will end up around 80 degrees. It will be breezy at times, blowing out of the north over 15 mph.

I do have one hesitation regarding this weekend. There is a cluster of thunderstorms over Florida that may develop into a tropical storm in the coming days. (Alberto is the first name on the list for this year.) Whether it does, or just remains an extratropical coastal storm, it will stay southeast of New Jersey. But that strong low pressure will churn up the Atlantic quite a bit. That may raise rough surf and rip current alarm bells at the Jersey Shore for this weekend.

Sunday

Clouds roll in Sunday, but conditions stay dry and pleasantly warm. High temperatures should once again hover around 80. (Sunday may end up a degree or two cooler than Saturday due to those clouds.)

The Extended Forecast

Next week looks hot and dry. Yes, there could be a daily popup shower or thunderstorm. But our next chance of anything widespread or organized is over a week away.

80s on Monday. Near 90 on Tuesday. And then 90s for Wednesday and beyond. This heat wave may last a full week, before rain and cool temperatures finally roll in.

Some models even show some triple-digit temperatures late next week, Thursday and Friday. I do not fully buy into 100+ degree heat just yet, as it is pretty rare in New Jersey. (Especially this early in the season.) But you are going to sweat, and air conditioning will be your friend. Definitely a hot and steamy start to summer — beaches and boardwalks could be insanely popular next weekend!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.