NJ reaches for 60°, watching two upcoming rain/snow chances

The Bottom Line

There are basically three big weather headlines to talk about this week. A welcome warmup. Another shot of steady rain on Wednesday. And then a big cooldown, sending temperatures plummeting by the first weekend of winter.

(There is another storm system setup worth watching at the end of the week, but impacts look minor for now.)

I can't believe Christmas Eve is only a week away. We are in the heart of the holiday hustle and bustle, so the day-to-day forecast becomes very important for traveling, shopping, and more. Let's jump in!

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Tuesday

Tuesday will be brighter and drier than Monday, for sure.

Having said that, we still have some mist, drizzle, and fog hanging over New Jersey to start the day. I do not see the sprinkly, gloomy weather lasting long past sunrise. And we should see solid breaks of sun break out by the afternoon. It will be dry, although breezy.

So Tuesday will be a pretty nice day. Near 50 in the morning, with highs reaching about 55 to 60 degrees. That is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for mid-December.

With clear skies and calm winds, Tuesday night will be chilly and jacket-worthy. Lows will dip into the mid 30s. Most of the state probably just misses out on a freeze.

Wednesday

The first part of Wednesday will be fine. Then we get wet again.

While the morning will feature a mix of sun and clouds, that cloud cover will thicken up into the afternoon. High temperatures will still be on the mild side, reaching the lower to mid 50s.

As a cold front approaches from the west, showers will become possible by mid-afternoon. Best chance for initial raindrops will be to the north and west. (Although spotty shower activity could realistically develop anywhere in NJ.)

Around early evening, a band of steadier, more widespread rain will slide through New Jersey. So everyone in the state will get wet for a few hours into Wednesday night. There are some hints that localized downpours, rumbles of thunder, and marginally gusty winds are possible. Most importantly, this precipitation will be all rain. Nothing wintry this time around.

Total rainfall will likely average a half-inch statewide. That could push month-to-date rainfall above normal. Good stuff, given our continuing drought concerns.

Thursday

By daybreak Thursday, rain will be done. Skies will start to clear. And cold air will make its grand return to New Jersey.

Thursday will be one of those blustery days — cold and breezy. High temperatures will be limited to the mid 40s, which is much more typical of this time of year.

Skies will generally be bright on Thursday — let's call it partly sunny. I can't rule out a brief snow shower or snow squall at some point.

Friday

Friday turns even colder. Expect 20s in the morning, and an afternoon high only around 40 degrees. At least winds will be lighter.

Skies on Friday will turn mostly cloudy.

One wrinkle that I do not want to ignore is a combination of a clipper system and coastal low passing close to New Jersey late Friday into early Saturday. If showers do develop over New Jersey in that overnight time frame, they would likely be snow instead of rain. The coldest model solutions even show some light accumulations across the interior of New Jersey.

I do not want to make a big deal of this storm system, as impacts are going to be minor at best. But it is something worth watching, given the chance for wintry weather to begin the weekend.

The Weekend & Beyond

The Winter Solstice official marks the start of winter on Saturday at 4:20 a.m.

And it sure it going to feel wintry this weekend, as the arctic air express fires up even more.

Saturday will be partly sunny. High temperatures will only reach the mid 30s, barely above freezing.

Latest forecasts put widespread teens on the temperature map Sunday morning. With highs only in the lower 30s — part of the state may be stuck below freezing for what should be the coldest day of the week.

I do not expect much improvement for Monday or Tuesday, with highs only in the 30s.

That brings us to Christmas. And it is still a bit early to pinpoint the holiday forecast. Some model runs have painted some snow/rain/mix showers over New Jersey on Christmas Day Wednesday. But that is a very low confidence call at this point. And I really do not see any signal toward a "major" storm system in the next 10 days.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.