NJ’s next heat wave begins Monday, big flooding risk later this week

The heat is on again — not surprising, of course, as we are in the "dog days of summer" here in late July. New Jersey faces three days of highs in the 90s this time around, with a heat index right around 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most of the state. The other big weather story brewing for this week is a strong cold front, which will push thunderstorms and heavy rain into New Jersey in the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame. I am concerned about severe weather. I am very concerned about flooding.

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Monday NJ weather: The heat is on again

Heat and humidity is not unusual in the summertime here in New Jersey. We have seen many 90-degree days already this season, with many more assuredly still to come.

Our incoming 3-day heat wave will not be New Jersey's worst of the summer. Not even close. The heat index will flirt with the "danger zone," but humidity levels will not be overly stifling or suffocating here.

Still, you need to take care of yourself when it is hot outside. 70s Monday morning will quickly rise into the lower 90s Monday afternoon. Factor in the humidity, and the heat index will end up right around 100 degrees.

A Heat Advisory goes into effect at 11 a.m. for almost all of New Jersey. The only four counties that escape technical advisory criteria this time around are along the southern tier of the state: Salem, Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May.

You will catch some relief from the heat at the Jersey Shore as a nice sea breeze develops.

Monday should be a sunny and stormy-free day, with a light breeze.

One more important note. Over the weekend, you may have heard about air quality concerns due to Canadian wildfire smoke. You may have even seen some haze and/or experienced a smoky smell. Models show that plume will drift over the western edge of New Jersey once again on Monday. So not a widespread issue, but worth knowing about if you encounter some smoky haze.

Monday night will be clear and muggy, with lows in the lower 70s. Again, not quite comfortable, but not overly tropical either.

Tuesday NJ weather: Even steamier

More of the same. Tuesday will be a bit steamier. And once again, the threat of a thunderstorm is minimal.

Expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures pushing into the mid 90s. Once again, triple-digit heat index values are likely for the majority of the state.

Stay cool, stay hydrated.

Wednesday NJ weather: Intense heat, then strong storms

Wednesday will be the third and final day of intense heat, with highs once again in the 90s. Skies will progress from sun to clouds as the afternoon progresses.

An approaching cold front may produce enough lift to fire off some isolated to spotty thunderstorms after about 4 p.m. Wednesday. Given the intense heat and humidity in the air, any storm that forms will be capable of producing gusty winds and very heavy rain. The best chance for severe weather late-day Wednesday will be in northern and central New Jersey.

Thursday NJ weather: Stormy but cooler

The timing of that strong cold front is very much in question, and will ultimately dictate when and how much rain we see later this week. The worst-case scenarios for Thursday are pretty scary, as a deep pool of atmospheric moisture forms over New Jersey. That would be enough for localized rainfall amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range. More than enough for severe flash flooding, as we have already seen several times this month unfortunately.

I am leaning toward a generally wet and stormy forecast for Thursday. We will fill in details about when it will rain, when it will pour, and when you may catch some dry weather as it gets closer.

Because of clouds and raindrops, temperatures will be held much cooler on Thursday. Highs will probably range from the mid 70s in North Jersey to the mid 80s in South Jersey.

Friday NJ weather: August begins with refreshing air

The lingering impacts of Thursday's inclement weather may still be felt on Friday. That means showers may linger along the coast. Clouds will give way to sun. And temperatures will be cooler than normal, possibly stuck in the 70s.

Humidity levels should drop significantly, leading to a much more comfortable, refreshing start to August.

And that pleasant air will hopefully carry into the weekend too. Temperatures are forecast to stay below seasonal normals, but still warm around the lower 80s. With sunshine and dry weather. Sounds fantastic to me.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.