NJ Memorial Day Weekend weather drier and brighter, still cool

The Bottom Line

Oh good, more rain. I have to say, our hydrological situation is looking pretty good these days. Most of New Jersey has picked up about an inch of rain over the last 24 hours — a nice, slow soak. And there is more to come.

The "brunt" of this storm system — the period of heaviest, most widespread rain — rolled through overnight. As things calm down Thursday, we will still see scattered to spotty showers around. So it will be another damp and dreary, inclement and raw day overall.

Improvements will start to kick in Friday. And yes, the holiday weekend is trending partly sunny and mainly dry. The only problem: Below-normal temperatures are here to stay. New Jersey's next truly "warm" weather day may not be until June.

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Thursday

As of this writing (7 a.m.), steady rain is still working through eastern New Jersey — Hudson, Essex, Union, Monmouth, and Ocean counties. But that batch of wet weather is slowly moving off-shore through mid-morning.

For the rest of the day, pockets of hit-or-miss, on-and-off rain will pass through New Jersey. There will be pockets of dry weather along the way too. But it will be hard to enjoy, as conditions generally will be wet and overcast.

Meanwhile, a strong breeze is blowing from the northeast now — a classic nor'east wind. That is driving ocean water toward the coast and churning up the ocean. A high risk of rough surf and dangerous rip currents is posted along the Jersey Shore. And a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Thursday evening's high tide cycle, cautioning of minor category flooding of tidal waterways.

Amidst the raindrops, clouds, and wind, it will be dismally cool once again. Temperatures will only rise from about 50 degrees in the morning into the lower to mid 50s in the afternoon.

I have to keep a few showers in the forecast for Thursday night. Along with chilly low temperatures, bottoming out in the upper 40s. Not a frost or freeze — but definitely raw and "jacket weather" territory.

Friday

Friday will be better. But still not perfect.

I think we will see some peeks of sun, but lots of clouds overhead Friday. On the backside of this storm system's circulation, some areas of spotty drizzle are possible too. Especially early in the day, and especially in northern NJ.

High temperatures will push to around 60 degrees, give or take. Again, better than those March-like 50s. But still well below seasonal normals for late May.

Saturday

Saturday will be partly sunny and breezy, with highs in the lower 60s. Some models put an isolated sprinkle over New Jersey, but I favor a dry forecast.

As we dive into the holiday weekend, it will be a little cool to dive into a pool or the ocean. But quite pleasant to hang out in the backyard, on the boardwalk, or watching a Memorial Day parade.

Sunday

Sunday will be a nice day, even though by the numbers temps will remain below normal.

Look for highs in the mid to upper 60s, with a mix of sun and clouds. (I almost want to call it mostly sunny, but that may be too optimistic.)

Memorial Day Monday

The chance of a shower on Memorial Day is not zero. The latest GFS favors some isolated raindrops in the morning — but I put very little stock in that call, since there is no significant enough forcing (storm system) in the neighborhood to cause widespread rain.

Skies will become mostly cloudy on Monday. But high temps should still make a run for 70 degrees. That is like Goldilocks weather — not too warm, not too cold.

The Extended Forecast

The weather for next week looks unsettled, but the details are very hazy. Model guidance tends to favor the return of rain in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but that is far from a slam dunk.

There will be warmer days and cooler days. But we will generally trend below normal until at least next weekend, as May turns to June.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.