Nice for now, another big blustery cooldown for NJ this weekend

The Bottom Line

Dry, dry, dry. Drought, drought, drought.

I feel like a broken record lately, but we have been stuck in an incredibly dry weather pattern for so long, there's not much else to talk about.

As of Thursday's update of the U.S. Drought Monitor, almost a third of New Jersey is classified as being in Severe Drought (category D2). 70% of the state is in drought, either moderate or severe.

It is worth mentioning that the abnormally dry conditions are not limited to New Jersey. Almost exactly half of the continental United States is in "D0 - Moderate Drought" or higher.

While there are a couple of minor shower chances coming up, the forecast for the next 10+ days continues to look awfully dry.

Short term, we have a quiet and pleasant weather day ahead for Friday. And then some changes for the last weekend of October, as a brisk wind kicks up on Saturday. The wind dies down and temperatures take a step down on Sunday.

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Friday

Close your eyes for a moment, and imagine what your ideal late October day would look like and feel like. Now open your eyes and look out the window — that vision should be very close.

Friday looks great. We are back on the chilly side to start, with early morning temperatures mainly in the 40s. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 60s — comfortable and seasonable, very close to normal for this time of year.

Skies will stay sunny, with dry air and dry weather. Wildfire danger is still very high — although not quite as high as Thursday, as winds will be much lighter.

Some clouds will creep into the sky from late afternoon into Friday evening. Overnight low temperatures should dip to around 50 degrees.

Saturday

This is a big weekend for fall activities — from trunk or treat to corn mazes to leaf peeping. And for the most part, the weather will be OK for you.

Saturday's nuisance is going to be wind.

The arrival of a cold front could bring a sprinkle into New Jersey Saturday morning. And then northwesterly gusts will blow up to 20 or 30 mph. That is not strong enough to be "damaging". But definitely noticeable, and perhaps feeling a bit blustery.

Saturday's temperatures will still be on the mild side, reaching the mid to upper 60s. And skies will remain bright, progressing from partly sunny to mostly sunny through the afternoon.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend will bring a November-ish chill into New Jersey. Sunday will probably be the coldest day of the season so far. But these colder-than-normal temperatures will not stick around for long.

Expect 30s and 40s Sunday morning. Then highs only in the mid 50s Sunday afternoon. It will be bright and sunny. And the wind will be much calmer.

Monday

Monday morning will probably be the bottom of the barrel of this next chilly air mass. Widespread 30s may yield widespread frost to start Monday, away from cities and coastal areas.

Temperatures will start to moderate Monday afternoon, reaching about 60 degrees. It will be another mostly sunny and uneventful day.

The Extended Forecast

A warming trend will carry through the middle part of next week. A switch to southwesterly winds will push highs well into the 60s on Tuesday. Then 70s for Wednesday and Halloween Thursday. There will be some clouds, as a hint of humidity enters our atmosphere. But absolutely nothing will fall from those clouds.

Long-range models show a minimal shower opportunity through the first weekend of November. If any beneficial steady rain comes toward New Jersey, it would not be until after Election Day — a full week and a half away, at the earliest.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.