
More icy than snowy: County-by-county breakdown of NJ winter storm
UPDATE... This article is outdated...
For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.
The Bottom Line
Amazingly, all four primary types of wintry precipitation — snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain — are in this forecast. A complicated setup, caused by warming temperatures both aloft and at the surface. And a potentially sloppy one too.
Once again, this will not be a "snow storm". Icing is the big concern. And as you may be aware, ice is slippery and can lead to significant travel issues. Thursday morning's commute is the one to watch.
Let's run through the bare bone basics of the next 24 hours, as we transition from quiet to wintry to wet. And then you will find a county-by-county breakdown with more specific times and accumulation expectations. (Out of fairness, I am running through counties in reverse alphabetical order for this storm.)

Timeline
In general, this will be a snow to icy mix to rain event, with precipitation intensity in the light to moderate range.
Most of Wednesday will be quiet, although cold and pretty cloudy. Expect 20s in the morning, then lower to mid 30s in the afternoon. Winds will stay light.
A snow shower or flurries are possible through Wednesday morning and afternoon, although our air is very dry at the moment. So snowflakes will have a hard time falling and/or making it all the way to the ground.
Well after sunset Wednesday evening, scattered snow showers will enter New Jersey from the southwest.
After Midnight, that snow will become more widespread and also steadier/heavier.
Also after MidnightNew Jersey's next storm system to watch looks to be another snow-ice-rain event from late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. (Accuweather)
New Jersey's next next winter storm is in the forecast for early next week, centered on Tuesday. That one currently looks colder. And therefore snowier. (Again, more later.)
Accumulations
This is the most complicated winter storm forecast map I have drawn in a while, as it combines both the chance of snow accumulation and ice accumulation. (I fully recognize that the quadruple intersection over South Brunswick, Middlesex County is really odd — it's just the way the numbers work out.)
To the north (orange and dark blue), a period of healthy snowfall could cause an inch or two of accumulation on the front side of the storm. Maybe pockets of 3" if it is cold enough.
For the rest of central and inland southern New Jersey (pink and light blue), snow accumulation will be more limited due to warming temperatures. I could see up to an inch on the ground, before icy mix and rain take over.
Along the coast (green), snow is possible initially. But not for long — so I do not expect more than a coating on the ground.
Meanwhile, the greatest icing potential for this storm is to the north and west (orange and pink). Up to a quarter-inch of ice accumulation could cause dangerous driving and walking conditions, and possibly some power outages.
To the south and east (dark blue, light blue, and green), the icing threat is less but still present. A light glaze of ice (up to a tenth of an inch) is more than enough to make streets, sidewalks, and steps slick.
Advisories
The National Weather Service expanded their Winter Weather Advisory to include at least part of all 21 counties in New Jersey. The only piece of the state excluded is the immediate coast.
Note: This advisory is not for snow. It is for that light glaze to glaze of ice.
County-by-County Forecast
Here are forecast details for each of New Jersey's 21 counties. These times and numbers are very much approximations, as there are still significant differences in timing across the spread of model forecasts. This is a very dynamic, complicated weather situation — please blur your eyes and keep your expectations in check.
Again, I am running through the counties in reverse alphabetical order, from Warren to Atlantic.
Warren
Overall Impact Level: Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 1 p.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 1 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 6 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 10 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Union
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: Western: 4 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Eastern: 4 a.m. to 11 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 1 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 8 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 2 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Sussex
Overall Impact Level: Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 1 p.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 2 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 8 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Somerset
Overall Impact Level: Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): Midnight
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 5 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 10 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 2 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Salem
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 7 p.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 7 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 11 p.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 7 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: Noon
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Passaic
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 4 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 2 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 8 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 2 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Ocean
Overall Impact Level: Minor
Winter Weather Advisory: Inland: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday, Coast: None
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 10 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 2 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 6 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 2 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 0 to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Trace (up to 0.01")
Morris
Overall Impact Level: Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 1 p.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 1 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 7 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Monmouth
Overall Impact Level: Minor
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 11 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 3 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 8 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 2 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 0 to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Middlesex
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: Inland: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday, Coast: None
First Flakes (Snow Begins): Midnight
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 4 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 9 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 2 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Mercer
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 11 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 3 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 8 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Hunterdon
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 1 p.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): Midnight
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 5 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 10 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Hudson
Overall Impact Level: Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 4 a.m. to 11 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 2 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 9 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 3 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Gloucester
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 8 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: Midnight
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 7 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: Noon
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Essex
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: Western: 4 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Eastern: 4 a.m. to 11 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 1 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 8 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 3 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Cumberland
Overall Impact Level: Minor
Winter Weather Advisory: 7 p.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 7 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 11 p.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 7 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: Noon
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Cape May
Overall Impact Level: Minor
Winter Weather Advisory: Inland: 7 p.m. Wednesdayto 8 a.m. Thursday, Coast: None
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 7 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 10 p.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 5 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: Noon
Total Snow Accumulation: 0 to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Trace (up to 0.01")
Camden
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 9 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 1 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 7 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Burlington
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: 11 p.m. Wednesday to 10 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 10 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 2 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 7 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: Coating to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Glaze (up to 0.25")
Bergen
Overall Impact Level: Minor to Moderate
Winter Weather Advisory: Western: 4 a.m. to 1 p.m. Thursday, Eastern: 4 a.m. to 11 a.m. Thursday
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 2 a.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: 9 a.m.
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: May not fully transition before ending
Precipitation Ends: 3 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 1 to 2 inches
Total Ice Accumulation: Light Glaze (up to 0.10")
Atlantic
Overall Impact Level: Minor
Winter Weather Advisory: Inland: 7 p.m. Wednesday to 8 a.m. Thursday, Coast: None
First Flakes (Snow Begins): 8 p.m.
Snow Changes to Icy Mix: Midnight
Icy Mix Changes to Rain: 5 a.m.
Precipitation Ends: 1 p.m.
Total Snow Accumulation: 0 to 1 inch
Total Ice Accumulation: Trace (up to 0.01")
Final flakes: When does snow season end in NJ?
Gallery Credit: Dan Zarrow
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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Gallery Credit: Stacker
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