May turns soggy and stormy: 9 days of rain chances for NJ?

The Bottom Line

Happy May 1st, one and all! On average, this month is New Jersey's 5th warmest and 5th driest of the year. Middle of the road. (It is also our 8th snowiest month, although I am quite certain wintry weather is done for the year.) It is time to put frosts and freezes in the rearview mirror, and look forward to some May flowers in bloom.

We will squeeze out one more nice day to kick off the new month. And then our forecast trends unsettled — wetter, cloudier, and even stormier.

You are going to hear a lot about wet weather in the forecast through the upcoming weekend, possibly lingering throughout next week too. In fact, the wettest-case scenario does show a rain chance over New Jersey all the way through next Friday. Possibly totaling 2 to 4+ inches of beneficial (if not excessive) rainfall. If that plays out, this could be the drought and wildfire buster we have been waiting for.

However, let me add a note of caution. Beyond the next three days or so, this is a highly uncertain forecast. It is dependent on the exact location of a stagnant area of low pressure and a stalled frontal boundary. This is one of those cases where you do not want to make or break your outdoor plans based on a little "rain" icon in your weather app. I promise there will be pockets of dry weather practically every day here. We just have to take it day by day, to see what Mother Nature is going to throw our way.

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Thursday

The streak of good weather will continue for one more day. Unfortunately, Thursday is the last day I can call "pleasant" for a while.

We are back on the chilly side Thursday morning, with most temperatures around New Jersey in the 40s. Grab a jacket.

Under partly sunny skies, thermometers will warm up quickly to the lower 70s Thursday afternoon. Similar to Wednesday. And still a few degrees above normal for this time of year.

A light breeze will blow from the southeast, off the ocean. That will keep Shore points cooler, in the 60s through Thursday afternoon.

While the daytime hours will remain dry, a batch of showers looks to develop Thursday evening. The best chance of getting wet will be to the north and west. Clouds and humidity will increase overnight too. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 50s on average.

Friday

Friday brings back summer — it is going to be a warm and fairly humid day with high temperatures near 80 degrees.

To be clear, most of New Jersey will stay dry on Friday. However, I can't rule out a popup shower or thunderstorm at any time. There's no major forcing in play, just a juicy atmosphere, so any storm cell that does form should be small and isolated.

Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and sun throughout Friday. Winds will fall in the breezy category, blowing from the southwest.

Saturday

I know, we really need the rain — with 40% of New Jersey still in drought. But why does it constantly have to happen on the weekend?!

A stalled frontal boundary will be draped directly over the state on Saturday, providing a "highway in the sky" for eventual rain. And also creating a dividing line between warm vs. cool, dry vs. wet, bright vs. dreary, etc.

In a change to our previous thinking, Saturday now looks to stay warm and humid, near 80 degrees for most of the state. North Jersey will end up closer to 70 degrees. The farther south you are, the brighter the sky will be.

A round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is looking likely from Saturday afternoon through evening. "Scattered" means there will be gaps of dry weather around too. And again, this timing is later than previously advertised, following along the latest model guidance trends.

Severe weather — specifically gusty winds and drenching rain — is a possibility from Saturday's storms, given how warm and moist the atmosphere will be. If you have outdoor plans late-day Saturday, please keep an eye on the sky and be ready to seek shelter if skies darken and/or thunder starts to rumble.

Sunday

Here's where the forecast gets tricky.

Saturday's rain will exit overnight. But a piece of energy gets stuck over New Jersey. That may be enough to keep spurts of rain over us through Sunday's midday hours. I don't see anything heavy or severe on Sunday — but most of the day could stay uncomfortably damp and dreary.

Due to thick clouds and a switch to an on-shore breeze, high temperatures on Sunday will come down to around 70 degrees.

The Extended Forecast

Although models have swung toward a cloudy, wet forecast for all of next week, I think this is still a "coin flip" forecast. There will be an opportunity for pockets of dry weather. Even a chance this stagnant storm setup shifts off-shore, and we experience clearing skies and drying weather.

At the same time, there could be some "washout" days with steady rain and miserably cool temperatures. (Right now, Tuesday looks to be the best opportunity for that — but don't hold me to that.)

As I said earlier, this forecast stinks. Not just because we're talking about several inches of rain, but because it is very difficult to nail down.

My job is to provide the day-by-day play-by-play of how the timeline, geography, and impacts look. And then your job is to stay weather-aware and prepared for whatever inclement weather comes our way.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.