MAGA struggles as independent voters shift away from Trump

✅ Donald Trump performed well in New Jersey in 2024 presidential race
✅ New poll finds support for MAGA waning
✅ What does it mean for NJ's race for governor?

Donald Trump did not win New Jersey in 2024, but his support surged compared to the 2020 presidential race. In a state where he lost big to Joe Biden, Trump came within 6 points of Kamala Harris on his way to victory.

One of the key reasons Trump did so well in New Jersey and nationally in 2024 was a big boost in support from Latino communities.

Trump more than doubled his support among Latino voters compared to his first White House run in 2016.

That support may have been short-lived.

An FDU poll found Trump's approval rating in New Jersey was plummeting and "more than1 in 4 (28 percent) of likely voters in the state say that they’re worried about deportations hitting themselves or their family, a figure that reaches 50 percent among Hispanic or Latino/a voters."

Anxiety among New Jersey's Latino residents has only increased with the increased enforcement actions from federal immigration agents.

Couple that with a newly released Rutgers/Eagleton survey that shows more than half of likely voters in the November gubernatorial election disapprove of Trump's 'Make America Great Again' agenda, and you see a radical shift from 2024.

What the Eagleton Poll shows

Headlines suggesting the MAGA movement is losing support in New Jersey can be a bit misleading.

MAGA remains wildly popular among Republicans in New Jersey with 87% of those surveyed saying they agree with the president's agenda.

Not surprisingly, the numbers are reversed among Democratic voters with 90% opposing MAGA policies.

The overall numbers is a poll like this can be skewed because there are still nearly a million more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.

But elections in New Jersey are often decided by independent or unaffiliated voters, and that is where MAGA support seems to be dropping. In the Eagleton survey, 46% of likely independent voters said they disapproved of MAGA policies.

Impact on NJ race for governor

Despite a widely held belief that the race for governor will be a close one, the polling data for Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli has not been encouraging.

Eagleton Center director Ashley Koning says, "Historically, moderation and center-right policy have often been a winning ticket for Republicans in New Jersey, but today, both GOP voters and candidates in the state appear to have aligned themselves with the national MAGA brand."

Ciattarelli worked hard to secure Donald Trump's endorsement in the GOP primary and there is no doubt it helped him win the nomination and retain support from many Republican voters heading into November.

However, with the edge Democrats still hold among registered voters, Ciattarelli will have to appeal to independent/unaffiliated voters to overcome that obstacle.

So far, he is failing to do so.

In an Eagleton survey released on Aug. 21, 33% of independent voters said they were supporting Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill versus 32% for Ciattarelli. Another third of independents were undecided.

Ciattarelli will need to work hard to move those undecided voters into his camp to have any chance of winning in November.

Given 46% of independent voters say they do not approve of MAGA policies, Ciattarelli faces a difficult decision. If he abandons or downplays his support of MAGA and Trump, he has a better chance of moving independents into his support column but also runs the risk of losing core GOP support.

The bottom line

I have always cautioned that polls do not predict outcomes of elections.

We have seen in recent election cycles how flawed many polls are and how skewed the results can be based on samples sizes, demographics and even the wording of the questions being asked.

Polls can, however, show trends. The trends suggest this is Mikie Sherrill's race to lose.

The trends show Jack Ciattarelli is lagging in nearly every demographic, ethnic population and geographic location. He even appears to lag among the critical independent voting block.

This is a race that should be decided by who voters believe can help struggling residents with a crippling lack of affordability.

Unfortunately, it seems to be trending toward the kind of divisive politics that threatens to shred the very fabric of American democracy.

Report a correction 👈 | 👉 Contact our newsroom