Lots to love about New Jersey’s mostly quiet, mild forecast
The only potential weather issues are sporadic shower chances and one marginal cooldown.
Well, that was dramatic. Monday's wicked winds made for an incredibly blustery day. Reports came in all day of downed trees, power outages, lost garbage cans, and accidents involving "high-profile" vehicles (trucks, buses, vans, SUVs, etc.) The state's top wind gust, according to the NJ Weather Network, was 59 mph at Seaside Heights, Ocean County.
I'm happy to report that conditions on this Valentine's Day will be much calmer and quieter. Tuesday morning's wind speeds have hovered in the 5 to 10 mph range, and are expected to increase only to about 10 to 15 mph by Tuesday afternoon.
We'll see alternating periods of sunshine and cloudiness throughout Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to peak in the lower to mid 40s - slightly warmer than Monday, slightly above normal for mid-February.
The morning HRRR and NAM suggested a shower could bubble into South Jersey at some point, but if those raindrops form, they will be brief and light. (And that's a big "if" - I think you can safely skip the umbrella Tuesday.)
The quiet weather continues Tuesday night, with partly cloudy skies, light winds, and chilly temperatures. Lows will bottom out in the lower to mid 30s by Wednesday morning.
I suspect clouds will win the sky on Wednesday. And as a storm system clips the state, we will probably see a few showers creep into the southern and coastal portions of the state. How hard will it rain, and how far inland will the showers reach? No one can say for sure - it all depends on the precise storm track. With high temperatures approaching 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon, what falls from the sky should be rain. And that rain should be mostly light and brief.
Colder air is ready for a comeback, and you'll certainly feel the chill and the wind starting Thursday morning. As thermometers dip into the 20s, the wind chill (or "feels like" temperature) will probably end up in the single digits for much of New Jersey. As skies break into sunshine, we should make it to around 40 degrees - not bad, if you ignore the gusty wind (to about 35 mph).
Winds will be lighter on Friday, but temperatures will remain on the chilly side of normal, again near 40 degrees.
I'm still keeping fingers crossed for a weekend warmup, although the latest data suggests the warmth will be slower to arrive and faster to depart. (Darn!) Saturday looks pleasant, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Even though clouds will thicken up, Sunday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs bumping into the mid to upper 50s. We may make a run for 60 degrees!
The long-range forecast has generally above-normal temperatures sustaining into late February. There are no major winter storms on the horizon for New Jersey.