Sherrill Leads But Independents Could Sway New Jersey Election

❎ Jack Ciattarelli continues to trail in gov race
❎ Key voting blocs take familiar sides
❎ Independent voters are key to victory

Republican Jack Ciattarelli continues to struggle to make gains against Democrat Mikie Sherrill in the race for New Jersey governor.

The latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows Sherrill with a nine-point lead among likely voters, but large numbers of voters remain undecided.

With less than three months to go until Election Day, each candidate must convince independent voters to cast a ballot for them to have a chance at winning.

This is even more critical for Ciattarelli since Democrats still hold a significant advantage in the number of party affiliated registered voters. Republicans are registering more voters than Democrats these days, but not enough to overcome a partisan advantage that has been key to democratic victories in recent elections.

Among independents, the news is not good for Ciattarelli. The poll shows they are evenly split with 33% for Sherrill versus 32% for Ciattarelli. However, nearly a third of independent voters say they have yet to choose a candidate.

To have any chance of victory, Ciattarelli must swing those undecided voters to his side.

"Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds," Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick explained.

"Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey,” said Koning. “Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November. Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout."

Other key takeaways from the poll:

✔ Younger voters favor Sherrill by a wide margin

✔ Older voters (50+) favor Ciattarelli

✔ White voters are divided between the two candidates (38% Sherrill to 44% Ciattarelli)

✔ Sherrill leads by double digits among Black voters (69% to 4%), Hispanic voters (56% to 22%), and Asian voters (47% to 18%).

✔ Sherill does better with voters who have at least a college degree (53% to 26%)

✔ Ciattarelli does better with those who have some college or less (34% to 45%)

✔ Ciattarelli leads Sherrill among voters in South Jersey and living at the Shore

✔ Sherrill has a 2-to-1 advantage among urban voters

Results are from a statewide poll of 1,650 likely voters contacted through the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel from July 31 to August 11. The sample has a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

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