A long night in Jersey: How Mikie Sherrill turned a close race into a Democratic landslide

TRENTON — Election Day in New Jersey began with a bomb scare and ended with a political explosion.

By 9:23 p.m. Tuesday, I knew it wasn’t going to be close. The Associated Press called the race for Mikie Sherrill before most North Jersey diners had even served dessert. After more than three decades covering this state’s political rollercoaster — from the Florio and Whitman years to Murphy’s narrow re-election — I can say I’ve rarely seen a supposed nail-biter unravel this fast.

Trump’s ghost haunts Ciattarelli’s campaign

For Jack Ciattarelli, this was supposed to be redemption. Four years ago, he came within three points of unseating Phil Murphy and spent the next four trying to prove it wasn’t a fluke. But the ghost of Donald Trump loomed large over his every handshake, every rally, every ad buy.

Ciattarelli’s gamble — to accept Trump’s endorsement in a state that has rejected him twice by double digits — turned into an anchor around his neck. Republicans needed to turn out in force in places like Ocean, Monmouth, and Morris counties. They didn’t.

Even worse for Ciattarelli, the GOP’s continued resistance to early voting left Democrats with a 300,000-vote cushion before dawn on Election Day. That kind of lead is nearly impossible to overcome, even in a normal year.

Combine that with multiple missteps and strategic errors of key issues, and Ciattarelli became his own biggest liability.

Women and independents seal the deal for Sherrill

I’ve said it for months: this race was going to be decided by women and independents. And that’s exactly what happened.

Sherrill’s campaign connected with the same swing voters who flipped districts blue after 2016. Her message — steady, inclusive, forward-looking — played especially well among women turned off by Trump’s return to the White House and the cultural combat that came with it.

By the time polls closed, the math wasn’t even close. Sherrill’s margins in Bergen, Essex, and Mercer counties were massive, and even in Republican-leaning suburbs, she held her own. It wasn’t just a win — it was a statement.

It will embolden Democrats with a mandate to continue the same policies that have crippled so many New Jersey families and led to the highest tax burden in the nation.

Any hope of the more moderate Democrats in the legislature keeping Sherrill and her progressive agenda in check are gone.

A humiliating end for Ciattarelli’s long chase for Drumthwacket

When Jack Ciattarelli stepped to the podium to concede, the crowd looked shell-shocked. No mention of Trump. No promises of another run. Just the sound of a man realizing that his decade-long quest for the governor’s mansion had finally reached its end.

“It is my hope that Mikie Sherrill has heard us,” he said. It was as close as he came to a parting shot.

For Sherrill, the moment was historic. For Ciattarelli, it was humbling. And for those of us who’ve watched New Jersey politics for decades, it was one more reminder that this state — stubborn, complex, and forever unpredictable — still knows how to surprise.

Bomb threats, fear, and the resilience of voters

The day wasn’t without chaos. Early Tuesday morning, bomb threats hit polling places in seven counties — from Bergen to Ocean. One juvenile from North Brunswick has already been charged.

No explosives were found, but the threats rattled voters and briefly disrupted operations at several schools. Despite that, turnout remained strong — proof that New Jerseyans don’t scare easily, especially when democracy is on the line.

As one voter in Monmouth told me between raindrops: “We’ve seen worse. We still vote.” That, in a sentence, sums up New Jersey — scrappy, skeptical, but never silent.

Turnout for this election could reach over 50%. We have not seen numbers like that since 1997.

The bottom line

Mikie Sherrill’s victory wasn’t just about her campaign discipline or fundraising edge.

It was about a dysfunctional Republican campaign that failed to capitalize on the number one issue facing every New Jerseyan: affordability.

Ciattarelli took for granted he would win on that issue.  In doing so, he allowed a liberal Democrat to assume the high ground on the single most defining issue of the campaign.

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