Something Has To Be Done About Polling In New Jersey & Nation

A HARRY HURLEY OPINION - EDITORIAL 

During the last national election cycle, President Donald Trump had to endure very bad election polling results during the Decision 2024 campaign.

The Worst For Trump Was An Iowa Poll Right Before Election Day

The once vaunted Selzer/Des Moines Register poll laid an egg right before Election Day.

Somehow, this formerly highly respected poll concluded that Kamala Harris led President Trump by 3 percentage points.

This sent shockwaves through the Decision 2024 Presidential campaign.

However, few believed the result to be accurate … yet, it raised natural questions that Trump might be in serious election trouble if he was trailing in reliably “Trump” Iowa.

Trump went on to win the state of Iowa by a margin of 55.7% to 42.5%

President Trump filed a lawsuit against Selzer & Co.; The Des Moines Register; and the newspaper's parent company, Gannett, alleging consumer fraud over the poll.

President Trump has since dropped the lawsuit and wants the state courts to resolve the matter.

New Jersey Senator Vince Polistina Knows All About Bad Polling

New Jersey Senator Vince Polistina, R-NJ-2 experienced an even worse polling nightmare.

Polistina was running against former New Jersey Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo for the State Senator position for District 2.

A Stockton University poll was released while early voting was actually taking place.

The poll gave Mazzeo a wide 7-point, 48% to 41% lead over Polistina.

Polistina defeated Mazzeo by a margin of 51.9% to 48.1% in the General Election of 2021.

There is just no way to know how a lopsided poll, announced during actual voting could have affected the outcome of the election … as well as stunt fundraising and campaign momentum … when the ultimate winner (Polistina) appeared to be losing by a wide margin.

New Jersey Senator Michael Testa Also Knows About Bad Polling

Just like Polistina, New Jersey Senator Michael Testa, R-NJ-1 got bitten by bad polling.

on October 24, 2019, Testa was the recipient of another Stockton University poll that showed former New Jersey Senator Robert Andrzejczak (D-1) leading the Republican challenger Testa by 14 points.

This was less than 2 weeks from General Election Day.

This alleged blowout poll allowed Andrzejczak campaign manager to tell InsiderNJ.com and District 1 that:

This poll is a clear message that the voters of LD 1 are rejecting Mike Testa, Antwan McClelland, and Eric Simonsen, said Andrzejczak Campaign Manager Sam Rivers. "And it's no surprise, either: Team Testa raised taxes and fees time and time again …

Testa went on to defeat Andrzejczak by a wide margin of 53.4% to 46.6%

Mikie Sherrill Versus Jack Ciattarelli Polling Right Now

A new Rutgers-Eagleton poll has Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by a margin of 20 percentage points in the 2025 race for Governor of New Jersey.

President Trump only lost New Jersey to then Vice President Kamala Harris by just 6 percentage points in November, 2024.

Could this possibly be accurate, when Ciattarelli lost the immediate past election for Governor to incumbent Governor Phil Murphy by only 3 percentage points in 2021?

Oh, by the way … all of the polling during the 2021 Gubernatorial campaign had Governor Murphy leading Ciattarelli by a very wide margin.

The only close sampling of public opinion in the 2021 race came on Election Day itself.

Polling Reform Is Sorely Needed In America

The release of dispiriting polls that may have turned losers into winners and potential winners into losers must be addressed.

Bad polling can directly effect get out the vote efforts, fundraising and overall campaign momentum.

This final comment may be perceived as political in nature … but, I don’t mean it that way.

It looks to me that the polls that are the most inaccurate appear to more often times benefit Democrat candidates.

Perhaps that’s just a coincidence … although I don’t believe in coincidences.