From rain to cold to NJ's best chance of snow so far this season

The Bottom Line

Wow, there is a lot of weather to talk about over the next five days here in New Jersey. From mild temperatures on Wednesday. To rain Wednesday night. From colder air returning on Thursday. To some snow and rain showers on Friday.. To frigid temperatures.

In my annual Here's the date of NJ's first snow of the season article, I conclude that if you have not seen an inch of snow by the Winter Solstice, then snow season is officially running late. Although NW NJ has had three snow events so far this season, most of the Garden State has not hit that benchmark yet.

Could it happen Friday night? And just how cold is it going to get for the first weekend of winter? Let's jump in...

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Wednesday: Mild then Rainy

We will squeeze out one more mild day Wednesday, although it will not be quite as nice nor as warm as Tuesday.

Having said that, Wednesday morning is pretty chilly — a full 15 degrees colder than Tuesday morning. 30s early on will warm to highs in the lower to mid 50s. That is about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Skies will start bright and sunny, but clouds will thicken up considerably by the afternoon. While most of the state should stay dry during the daytime hours, some spotty shower activity is possible by late afternoon. Best chance of early raindrops would be to the north and west.

The better chance of rain, by far, will come Wednesday evening. I estimate North Jersey will get wet in the window from 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. Most likely time for rain in South Jersey is a bit later, between 7 p.m. and 3 a.m.

It is just a few hours of wet weather, totaling about a quarter-inch to half-inch. Nothing bonkers. And nothing wintry. Low temperatures will stay above freezing, dipping into the upper 30s by early Thursday morning.

Thursday: Breezy and Colder

Behind the rain comes a cold front. Behind the frontal boundary comes the return of arctic air.

Wind speeds on Thursday are forecast to reach the "breezy" range, maxing out just over 20 mph. That will definitely add a blustery characteristic to the day, as temperatures turn colder and more December-ish.

Look for highs only in the mid 40s Thursday afternoon. Sunshine probably wins the sky, although some clouds are likely throughout the day from dying lake-effect snow showers. (I doubt we will see anything more than a stray flurry falling from the sky.)

Friday: Snow and Rain Showers

Friday gets interesting. As a clipper system approaches from the west, another area of low pressure will develop just off the Jersey Shore. This duo will pass just close enough to New Jersey to warrant ramping up our precipitation chances.

To start, Friday will be mostly cloudy and cold. High temperatures will only reach the upper 30s (inland) to lower 40s (coast).

Scattered showers are expected to develop Friday afternoon. For inland New Jersey counties, this will likely start as snow or wintry mix. For southern and coastal NJ, it will be sporadic rain.

Once the sun sets Friday evening and temperatures start to drop, any remaining showers will likely transition to all snow. Snowflakes may linger through daybreak Saturday.

Note: that timeline might "wiggle" over the coming hours and days. If onset happens earlier, it would be a rainier situation. If it pushes later, I would lean snowier.

There is also a chance for some "enhanced dynamics" over New Jersey. In other words, a pocket of juicy air, conducive to brief pockets of heavier snow.

At the moment, I am thinking widespread light snow accumulations are likely across the state, on the order of 1-2". Higher amounts are possible, especially if colder temperatures prevail and/or that heavier snow band possibility sets up. (I will hold off on drawing a specific snow map for another day — let's see how things continue to develop.)

All in all, this potential snow event is minor. An inch or two is hardly anything to make a fuss over. However, this increasing chance of snow/ice warrants extra attention for two reasons. First, the timing — Friday is a big getaway day and a big travel day, heading into the last weekend before Christmas. And second, it is our best chance of widespread snow so far this season. That alone justifies some raised eyebrows and added excitement.

This Weekend: Bitter Cold

This weekend, we transition from "cold" to "very cold". In fact, it could be in contention for some of the coldest days of all of 2024. Just in time for the Winter Solstice, which hits early Saturday morning at 4:20 a.m.

Saturday will go from 20s in the morning to only lower 30s in the afternoon. Add in a bitter northwest breeze, gusting between 20 and 30 mph, and the wind chill may be stuck in the teens all day. It will be partly sunny and dry.

Sunday will be less windy, but even colder. Teens in the morning, and only upper 20s in the afternoon. That's frigid!

Is it unusual to see an entire winter day below freezing in New Jersey? No way. In December? Eh, it happens every other year, on average. That doesn't mean we have to like it — it will be bitter and cold.

The Extended Forecast

Monday stays cold, with highs in the lower 30s. And then temperatures should moderate for Tuesday (Christmas Eve), with some thermometers reaching the 40s.

Long-range models have hinted on-and-of at a storm system clipping New Jersey on Wednesday (Christmas Day). Even if this comes to pass, I doubt it would be cold enough for an all-snow situation.

Honestly, we have two other storm systems in the way and seven full days before Christmas. I am not going to stress over this low-confidence call now. The odds of a White Christmas seem rather unlikely — but hopefully your holiday will be merry and bright, regardless of the weather.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center