The Bottom Line

As the remnants of Sally shove off the coast, our showers will exit too. And then we begin a long stretch of very dry and generally cool weather across New Jersey. In fact, most of the state could stay completely rain-free for a week and a half. The tropics are still active though, and worth watching. Especially as Hurricane Teddy spits some swell toward the Jersey Shore over the weekend.


As of this writing (5 a.m.), the main band of rain associated with Sally's remnants is just south of Cape May, New Jersey. We still have some spotty showers and sprinkles in southern and coastal New Jersey to start the day. But we should dry out in short order Friday morning, with brightening skies Friday afternoon. All but coastal counties should break into sunshine by the end of the day.

Meanwhile, cooler air is working it's way southward through the state too. So gone are the seasonable 70s of Thursday — high temperatures Friday will only reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This air mass is ridiculously dry too, leading to a fall feel in the air.

A growing concern we have to mention here is the still-angry ocean. As Hurricane Teddy approaches Bermuda, it will throw some swell our way. That will keep the surf rough and our rip current risk in the moderate-high range. In addition, several consecutive high high tide cycles are expected, from Friday evening through Sunday. Minor to localized moderate flooding of tidal waterways will be possible at high tide. Never attempt to drive, swim, or walk through flooded areas.

One more thing. The smoke plume from the western U.S. wildfires is still directly overhead as of Friday morning. However, a shift in the jet stream is expected to push that smoke well south of New Jersey by Friday night. So the hazy, milky, washout-out sky should be gone as we dive into the weekend.

Saturday, Sunday, & Monday

Chilly mornings, cool afternoons, sunny skies, dry weather. Copy and paste. Later, rinse, repeat. This is definitely a broken-record forecast for the final weekend of summer, as conditions remain steadfastly fall-like.

Morning low temperatures will generally be in the 40s throughout the weekend. (Actually, I expect Monday morning to be the coolest of the bunch, with patches of 30s possible.) For the most part we'll avoid any risk of frost. But if temperatures dip further than forecast, especially in NW NJ and the Pine Barrens, we could get close to the frost threshold (37 degrees).

Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid 60s for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. That is 10+ degrees below normal for mid-to-late September, more reminiscent of typical mid-October weather.

Tuesday & Beyond

The Autumnal Equinox officially falls at 9:30 a.m. Tuesday. And our weather will stay quiet, with a slow warming trend through the middle of next week. Lower 70s Tuesday, upper 70s Wednesday, possibly some 80s by Thursday. Models are hinting at some raindrops on Thursday too, exclusively in northern New Jersey. Our next chance of widespread, substantial rainfall won't come until the last few days of September at the earliest.

Have a great weekend!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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