We are now within that magical "five-day forecast" range of getting a realistic peek at what the weather in New Jersey will be like on Independence Day. The key word is probably HOT, but there are some variables you'll want to know before finalizing your plans.

Of the five days encompassing this long holiday weekend, only Friday and Monday seem to be completely rain-free at this point. Friday promises to be sunny and breezy, with daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s (just in the 70s along the Jersey Shore). Friday night brings some slight cloud cover and humid conditions, with lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s, possibly into the mid-70s in inland urban areas.

Saturday and Sunday are copy-and-paste jobs. For both days, it's a mix of sun and clouds, and scattered showers and thunderstorms with highs again in the upper 80s/lower 90s range.

To reiterate, Monday washes the rain away with plenty of sunshine and highs fitting into a tight 85-90 bubble ... though possibly only up to 80 at the shore.

And while those temperatures don't vary much on Tuesday, there will be a few more clouds — and the chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm — for your July 4th.

A couple of things to keep in mind: First, as NJ.com reported, ocean temperatures still won't be too warm if you are bound for the beach this weekend. And second, the late-day rain on Tuesday is not the only factor that could impact your fireworks plans. Some celebrations could be impacted by a looming state government shutdown.

(Check out our official list of fireworks displays this weekend in the Garden State, and stay up to date by checking back here at NJ1015.com, or by downloading our free mobile app.)

Meteorologist Dan Zarrow is on vacation and will return Thursday, July 6. Patrick Lavery produces "New Jersey's First News" and is New Jersey 101.5's morning drive breaking news reporter.

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