Fierce wind, arctic chill, midweek storm mainly a ‘miss’ for NJ

The Bottom Line

New Jersey's weather has been exhausting lately. Mother Nature has been quite the little drama queen, with storm after storm alongside wild temperature swings.

This week also features active weather, with three headlines in play:

1.) Wind... Sunday night's gusts were quite ferocious, and it will take a while for winds across New Jersey to fully subside.

2.) Cold... That wind is delivering cold, dry arctic air to New Jersey, plunging thermometers below freezing for several days in a row.

3.) Snow... We have been closely watching a potential storm system in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Now that the forecast is becoming clearer, the storm track has shifted notably to the south, keeping the heaviest snow potential away from New Jersey.

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Monday

Happy President's Day! It is going to be quite the blustery day. At least it will be dry — other than a flurry, nothing is expected to fall from the sky.

Sunday evening's top wind gusts in NJ were 71 mph at both Atlantic City International Airport and Pennsauken. While things have calmed down considerably overnight, we are still looking at occasional gusts to 40 or 50 mph throughout Monday.

A Wind Advisory continues for all 21 counties of New Jersey until 6 p.m. Monday. That means strong winds could cause driving difficulties, downed branches and trees, and sporadic power outages.

The wind is also adding a big bite to our newly refreshed cold air. Temperatures Monday morning are in the 20s and 30s. Highs will only reach the mid 30s. And we have to talk about the dreaded wind chill — "feels like" temperatures will be no better than the 20s through Monday afternoon.

Wind speeds will subside a little bit heading into Monday night. But it's still going to be very cold. Bitterly cold. Even dangerously cold, if you don't bundle up warmly and take care of yourself. Expect low temperatures in the teens by Tuesday morning, with a wind chill near zero.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week. The bottom of the barrel.

And still breezy too, although better, with gusts to about 30 mph.

At least the weather will be bright. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, we will only see highs reach the mid 20s Tuesday afternoon. Wind chills probably no better than the teens.

Tuesday night will also flirt with "dangerous cold" territory. Lows in the teens, wind chills near zero.

Wednesday

Finally a taste of calmer winds on Wednesday, about 10 to 15 mph tops. But then we have to watch for our next potential weathermaker, a storm system to the south.

Skies will become mostly cloudy to overcast by late Wednesday morning. And once again, high temperatures will be stuck below freezing, only hitting the upper 20s or so.

And then ... a dud. What a tease! What a waste! I do not regret saying this storm system had a good setup and solid model consistency, and presented a likelihood for snow. It did. But that is why we wait until 48 to 72 hours before a storm to dig into the details and start a mass panic — if appropriate.

In this case, our new cold, dry air mass wins out. It will push the storm track well south of the Garden State, making an outright blizzard and/or double-digit snowfall totals highly unlikely. The snow bullseye has shifted as far south as Virginia and Maryland — North Carolina could see both snow and significant icing.

However, it would be foolish to think New Jersey will get no snow from this system. The outer bands could easily come close enough to produce 2 or 3 inches of accumulation along the southern coast. And maybe some light snowflakes throughout the state Wednesday night. In either case, not a big deal — but it is still worth watching to see how this plays out.

Thursday

Snow showers may linger through midday Thursday, and then skies will clear late. High temperatures will still be unseasonably cold, close to 30 degrees.

As that southern storm system flies out to sea, the pressure gradient will tighten up again kicking up some wind. I could see some wind gusts to 30 mph through Thursday night.

Friday & Beyond

For now, quiet, sunny weather should take us into the last weekend of February.

Friday will be breezy, with highs in the mid 30s. Finally above freezing, after more than 80 hours below.

Saturday will see upper 30s.

And then seasonable 40s return for Sunday. That is the next day I would call truly "pleasant" for New Jersey.

So is winter over? Will warmth build and storms stay away? Ehhh, no. While the break will be nice, inclement weather could reach in the early to middle part of next week. The jury is still very much out whether that storm setup would be snow, rain, all of the above, or none of the above.

I will say this — the start of spring is only 31 days away!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.