Blustery, potentially damaging winds and black ice across NJ Monday
A High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are in effect, as gusts to 60 mph will be possible across New Jersey during the daytime hours on Monday.
On this Monday morning, New Jersey is caught in a strong pressure gradient. In other words, the difference in atmospheric pressure between a departing low pressure and an approaching high pressure. The result will be some fierce winds through Monday's daytime hours. We've already seen a few reported gusts over 50 mph.
A High Wind Warning is in effect until 6 p.m. for southern and coastal New Jersey, including Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem counties. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 50 or 60 mph, are possible in this area.
A Wind Advisory is in effect until 6 p.m. for the rest of the state, including Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 or 50 mph, are possible here.
Given the high winds, scattered power outages are possible. I am especially concerned about power lines in the northern part of the state, where a glaze of ice accumulated on Sunday.
Speaking of ice, be very careful walking and driving early Monday. Black ice is certainly noticeable across the northern and central parts of the state. Even if your car thermometer says 37 or 38 degrees... Cold air pools right at the surface, meaning ice can still form - especially on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.
Skies will clear away to sunshine by Monday afternoon, as winds subside by Monday evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s to around 40 degrees for most of the state. However, that wicked wind comes into play too - the wind chill ("feels like" temperature) will be stuck in the 20s all day long.
Monday night will remain breezy, with peak winds in the neighborhood of 20 mph. It'll be a mostly clear, cold February night. Low temperatures should bottom out in the mid 20s by Tuesday morning.
Overall, Tuesday will be a better, quieter weather day. Skies will be partly sunny (eh, maybe mostly sunny) with seasonable high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
On Wednesday, a storm system will just barely clip New Jersey. I'm not especially confident - our weather conditions will be extremely sensitive to the exact track of that system. So, I'm going to include showers and clouds for now, with wiggle room to go drier or wetter as needed. High temperatures for Wednesday should reach the mid to upper 40s.
Another cooldown is forecast for Thursday and Friday, as highs stumble and fall to around 40 degrees, give or take.
There's a signal of a warmup for the upcoming President's Day weekend. Forecast high temperatures are mainly in the 50s.