Back to ‘jacket weather’ Tuesday: Sun and clouds, maybe a shower
After three days in a row of 70+ degree temperatures, cooler air has returned to New Jersey. And as I discussed in Monday's weather blog post, we're now stuck below-normal for the foreseeable future. I don't see a return to above-normal temps until late next week — 10 or 11 days away.
Tuesday's primary weather drive is a storm system digging well to our south, centered around North Carolina. Tuesday morning starts calm, crisp, and cool with temperatures in the 40s. Clouds thicken up a bit through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be much lighter than on Monday. High temperatures will be capped at 60 degrees — almost 10 below normal for early May.
In addition, that southern storm system could spit a few sprinkles and showers toward the Garden State. This part of the forecast admittedly gets a little fuzzy. Our atmosphere will be pretty dry to sustain substantial raindrops. But at the same time, the NAM models have been stubbornly persistent in painting showers spreading through the southern half of the state after 2 p.m. I'm not totally convinced, but I don't want anyone to get caught off-guard. Thus, a casual mention in the forecast.
Skies will turn mostly cloudy Tuesday night, as low temperatures dip back into the mid 40s. More "jacket weather" for sure.
Wednesday will be cloudy and even cooler than Tuesday. Pretty blah, in fact, with showers and drizzle likely throughout the day. We may even see a batch of steadier rain centered around Wednesday evening. Overall, not a very pretty day.
So comparatively, Thursday will be a wonderful weather day, as we flip back to sunshine and dry weather. Highs will reach the lower to mid 60s. Not bad, by mid-April standards. But here in early-mid May, it is to 10 below normal.
Increasing clouds Friday morning will lead to our next substantial rain chance starting Friday afternoon. Guidance is starting to suggest a moderate-to-heavy rainfall amount, with potential totals close to an inch. At the moment, it looks to be short-duration enough to avoid serious flooding talk.
I do not like Saturday's weather forecast at all. It will be windy, with westerly gusts potentially hitting 40 to 50 mph. It will be cold, with highs barely topping 50 degrees. And a little impulse riding to our north could spark some showers. What kind of showers? Rain and snow showers. Yes, I used the "S" word in the forecast for May 8th. The GFS and Euro models have been persistent enough with the snowflakes to start mentioning it as a legitimate possibility. But I still maintain that any sort of accumulation will be extremely difficult to achieve, given our warming ground and above-freezing air temperatures.
Sunday looks like the better day of the upcoming weekend by far, with mostly sunny skies and 60+ degree high temperatures.