The Bottom Line

Thursday will be New Jersey's fourth day in a row in the deep freezer. And I am happy to say we are about to thaw out.

It will not necessarily be "warm" any time in the coming days or weeks. But temperatures popping above freezing and even above seasonal normals? That is a great improvement, after what has been a frigid week of January weather.

By the end of the weekend, temperatures will be in the 40s — such a difference from highs only in the teens. It will be short-lived though, as arctic air makes a comeback midweek.

One important effect of all this cold air: It is keeping storm systems away. There are no substantial snow (or rain) threats in the forecast through the rest of January.

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Thursday

I am surprised to see Thursday morning is New Jersey's most consistently cold morning of this entire stretch. While northwestern New Jersey is not nearly as frigid as yesterday — -17 vs. -2 degrees — most of New Jersey is firmly in single-digit territory to start the day. Even South Jersey. Only coastal and urban areas are slightly warmer, in the teens. Talk about frozen solid.

We will see improvements Thursday afternoon. Look for high temperatures in the upper 20s — that is about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday. Under a mix of sun and clouds, winds will stay light and skies will stay dry.

Thursday will be cold, but about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday. (Accuweather)
Thursday will be cold, but about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday. (Accuweather)
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Even though we are talking about a slight warmup here, you will still be bundling up for the duration.

Thursday night will be clear and cold, with lows in the teens. Mid teens, to be more specific.

Friday

Friday gets even better, as I believe the majority of New Jersey will pop above the magical freezing mark of 32 degrees. For a few hours at least.

Friday will be cold, but about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday. (Accuweather)
Friday will be cold, but about 5 degrees warmer than Thursday. (Accuweather)
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Expect highs in the lower 30s. Again, not warm at all. And still well below normal for late January. (Normal high is 40-ish, FYI.)

Saturday

Saturday is a little speed bump in our warming trend, as highs get stuck in the lower 30s for another day. (By the numbers, Saturday might be a couple degrees cooler than Friday — but not really noticeably so.)

We should see plenty of sunshine Saturday, with late-day clouds. Once again, the breeze remains light and the weather fair.

Sunday

Sunday will mark a grand return to seasonable temperatures for the great Garden State. 40 degrees is right where we should be this time of year. Nothing to complain about there.

The slight warmup continues for NJ this weekend, as the massive dome of arctic air relaxes its grip on the US. (Accuweather)
The slight warmup continues for NJ this weekend, as the massive dome of arctic air relaxes its grip on the US. (Accuweather)
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Sunday will be a mostly cloudy day, with a stiff westerly breeze. (I am not going to specifically calculate or mention a wind chill here, but wind speeds will be elevated enough to add a bite to the air.)

A few flurries are possible on Sunday, especially in the morning and especially in North Jersey. But hardly worth mentioning.

The Extended Forecast

We should push into the 40s on Monday and Tuesday, driving good snow melt and happy feelings. Expect partly sunny skies and continued breezy conditions.

Eventually, another arctic cold front will arrive. Current model guidance suggests that will happen around Tuesday afternoon. It will come with a brief round of spotty snow/rain showers, followed by another cooldown.

Another shot of very cold arctic air is expected to arrive next Tuesday or Wednesday. (Accuweather)
Another shot of very cold arctic air is expected to arrive next Tuesday or Wednesday. (Accuweather)
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That's right, thermometers fall right back into the freezing again for the second half of next week. Wednesday's highs will be around 30 degrees, at the warmest.

As for snow chances, they really look minimal through the end of January (which is next Friday, by the way). Long-range guidance shows our weather might turn active again next weekend. But that is just something to watch on the horizon for now.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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