Almost zero chance of wintry weather this week in New Jersey
Another January warmup is in the forecast for the Garden State, with persistent showers expected for part of the week too.
Last week, I told you not to expect any significant winter weather in New Jersey for about two weeks. That prediction is still holding firm, as mostly mild air and above-normal temperatures take hold of New Jersey this week (and probably beyond).
We're waking up to the coldest morning in almost a week, with thermometers reading teens in North Jersey and 20s in South Jersey. With the statewide subfreezing temperatures, icy spots are possible early Monday - especially on driveways, sidewalks, and front porches that were not shoveled after Saturday's snow.
Monday afternoon temperatures will reach the mid 40s, a few degrees warmer than Sunday and a few degrees above normal for mid-January. The day will begin with sunshine for all but South Jersey, but clouds will begin increasing steadily by Monday midday. Skies should remain dry during the day.
A warm front will slide north toward New Jersey Monday evening. That front will eventually stall right over the Garden State, providing a static "highway in the atmosphere" of sorts, for storm systems to travel along. That will set up a 36-48 hour period of wet weather.
Notice I said wet, not wintry! Showers will arrive Monday night. Low temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. While I can't rule out some wintry mix in far NW NJ, and even a few snowflakes statewide, I highly doubt icing will pose a big problem for Tuesday morning's commute.
As showers pass over New Jersey on Tuesday, it will probably be a damp day - although not a washout. Models don't show steady rain, only light and intermittent (on-and-off) showers. And again, with high temperatures forecast to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, we'll be far above freezing. So it's just rain. (There may be some fog along the way too.)
Showers will wrap up late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. And I'm optimistic we'll see some sunshine by Wednesday afternoon, pushing high temperatures into the mid 50s. As long as that happens on time, Wednesday should turn into a nice day.
Thursday looks good too, with partly sunny skies and highs around 50 degrees.
Temperatures should stay above normal through the upcoming weekend. Our next chance for steady rain is modeled for next Monday and our next chance of significant snow is modeled to be about two weeks away. (That is, of course, a no-confidence forecast and subject to change.)