This morning is definitely a case of #FirstWorldWeathermanProblems. As Hurricane Chris was downgraded to Tropical Storm Chris at 5 a.m. Thursday morning, I had to scramble to update all my written and recorded weather forecasts. Ugh, it's been a morning so far, let me tell you!

Even though Chris is now centered more than 600 miles due east of New Jersey, it's still spitting some swell back toward the coast. A Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents and rough surf continues for the entire Jersey Shore today. My best advice is to follow lifeguard instructions carefully — they have specific local knowledge of individual beaches and where rip currents may form, and will adjust flag colors and positions accordingly. Please don't become a statistic — we've had far too many rescues and deaths this week up and down the coast.

Anyway, let's talk about the pleasant weather coming up for New Jersey. Well, it'll be pleasant eventually. As of this writing (Thursday 6 a.m.), a few isolated dollops of rain are pushing through the state — mainly to the north and the south, with sprinkles in between. Models show we'll turn completely dry by about 8 a.m. Thursday, with partly sunny skies commandeering the sky through Thursday afternoon.

GFS model forecast temperatures as of 2 p.m. Thursday. Red means warm. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
GFS model forecast temperatures as of 2 p.m. Thursday. Red means warm. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

I do not expect Thursday's temperatures to be as warm as Wednesday's, with humidity levels staying fairly low for mid-summer (with dew points around 60). That will make for a comfortable day overall, with high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Thanks to a prominent sea breeze, the Jersey Shore will top out in the 70s.

Guidance does show spotty showers and sprinkles for Thursday afternoon, but I've opted to keep them out of my on-air forecast. Our capped and not-humid atmosphere won't be all that conducive to raindrops once temperatures start to warm.

Thursday night should be quiet, with a few clouds overhead and low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. (That's slightly cooler than the past couple of nights.)

Friday the 13th reads like the perfect exemplar of a "typical" mid-July day here in New Jersey. Highs temperatures will warm to seasonal normal levels, with mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the beach. We'll enjoy a mixture of sunshine and clouds overhead, with dry weather expected all day. A delightful, summery end to the workweek.

Thermometers will continue to cook this weekend, making for a very warm but still-pleasant Saturday. We'll kick off the weekend with mostly to partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday is looking like the cloudier and hotter day of the weekend. Our latest forecast shows inland temperatures will climb into the lower 90s for Sunday afternoon. (With a bump-up in humidity, to boot.) In addition, there could be a few spot showers or thunderstorms around on Sunday too, especially in the morning hours. 90% of the day looks dry.

Sunday could also be the start of our next heat wave, with 90s also probable for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday too. Our next storm system will be a cold front, currently progged to arrive Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. A much-needed round of widespread rain is expected, along with a slight, eventual cooldown (probably arriving on Thursday).

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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