Yucky weather Wednesday for NJ: Showery, cloudy, and cool
Tuesday turned out to be a nice day! Thursday looks great too! Wednesday, however, not so much. I use the word yucky in my forecasts, to specifically point out a miserably damp, grey, and cool day. And there's your weather for Wednesday.
Unfortunately, this will not be New Jersey's last batch of wet, unhappy weather for the week. And I still don't see any semblance of a warmup through the next 8 to 9 days.
As of this writing Wednesday morning (5:30 a.m.), we've had a few raindrops visit the northern third of New Jersey so far. Several more waves of showers and drizzle will swing through as the day progresses. It looks like the wettest part of the day will be Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday early evening. It's certainly not going to rain all day, and rainfall totals will be light (on the order of a tenth of an inch).
The raindrops and thick clouds will keep temperatures pretty stagnant Wednesday, as we climb from the 40s in the morning into the lower 50s (at best) in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 15 mph.
That on-shore flow will push just enough water toward the Jersey Shore to raise some coastal flooding alarm bells. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the entire coastline, from Essex County to Burlington County. Minor flooding of tidal waterways is possible during Wednesday evening's high tide cycle, which is between 6:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. on the oceanfront, 3 to 4 hours later along back bays, and up to 6 hours later for the Delaware River basin. Vulnerable areas — the "usual" spots — could see up to a foot of water inundation.
Raindrops should end around Midnight Wednesday night, give or take. Then clearing skies will give way to chilly temperatures. We'll bottom out in the lower 40s across most of New Jersey. A frost is possible in NW NJ, as thermometers touch the 30s.
Thursday will be the nicest day we've got left this week! Expect sunny, breezy, and generally dry conditions with highs recovering to the lower to mid 60s. (That is still 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals, by the way.) I am seeing a chance of a shower Thursday evening, but it looks isolated enough to leave out of my on-air forecast for now.
We'll enjoy more sunshine to start Friday, with highs reaching the upper 50s to around 60 by lunchtime. But then we get wet again. Our next storm system will drive in rain starting Friday afternoon. That rain will become steady to heavy through Friday night.
And that sets up a not-so-pleasant start to the weekend on Saturday. Friday's storm system should exit early Saturday morning, with a few additional showers possible Saturday afternoon. It is going to be windy, with northwesterly gusts up to 50 mph. And it is going to be cold, with highs only in the lower 50s.
I really can't believe I'm saying this in May, but there is a legitimate chance for snowflakes on Saturday too. For now, we're eyeing that possibility for the northern half of New Jersey, primarily north and west of the NJ Turnpike. Light snow is possible both pre-dawn (as Friday's storm system wraps up) and again in the afternoon (from the additional scattered showers).
Forecast models continue to go bonkers about accumulations up to 3 inches. Yikes. With soil temperatures now in the 50s, and air temperatures well above freezing Saturday, significant snow accumulation is highly unlikely. However, if that snowfall ends up squall-ish (localized heavy), I honestly can't rule out a quick dusting or coating. Wow.
Mother's Day Sunday will clearly be the brighter, better day of the weekend. Skies will become mostly sunny, with a stiff breeze and high temperatures recovering to the lower 60s.
Long-range models show a warmup into the 70s and even 80s in New Jersey by next weekend.