Tuesday NJ’s hottest day this week – widespread storms Wednesday
Sunshine. Heat. Isolated storms. Yup, looks like another Jersey summer day to me! We do have some changes on the way — more on that in a moment.
Tuesday morning is starting out in the 70s, with high temperatures in the 90s just about everywhere Tuesday afternoon. (Even the beaches may hit 90+.) Just like Monday, we'll have plenty of sultry sunshine throughout the day. And just like Monday, a couple of isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop up. (Best chance for raindrops looks to be central and northern New Jersey, between about 3 p.m. and 7 p.m.)
A few additional headlines for Tuesday:
—A Heat Advisory for northeastern New Jersey: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, and Union counties. As the heat index reaches 95+ degrees, we will be right on the edge of dangerous heat.
—An Air Quality Alert (Code Orange) for part of the state: Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, and Union counties. The very young, the very old, and those with heart/lung issues should limit outdoor activity during the hottest part of the day.
—A Moderate Risk of dangerous rip currents along the Jersey Shore, for the third day in a row. Follow signs and lifeguard instructions to the letter.
After our shower chance fades, Tuesday night will be clear, calm, and pretty warm. Low temperatures will dip into the above-normal lower 70s.
Changes arrive on Wednesday, as a cold front arrives in New Jersey. I suppose a few spotty showers are possible Wednesday morning, as sunshine turns to clouds. Widespread thunderstorms look to sweep through the state starting around 2 p.m.
Those storms could be on the strong side, and I would not rule out some hail and gusty winds. My main concern, however, should be no surprise — heavy downpours leading to flooding. July has already seen above-normal precipitation. And, despite generally dry weather lately, we're still prone to flash flooding. Some models are pumping out 3 to 4+ inches of rain within an hour or two Wednesday evening (around 6 p.m.) That could lead to dramatic and dangerous conditions during the evening rush hour.
Most thunderstorm activity should end and exit by around 10 p.m. Wednesday, with lingering showers ending early Thursday morning.
The aforementioned front will stall just south of New Jersey, providing at least a daily shower/storm chance through the upcoming weekend. (Having said that, there are no washout days in this forecast.)
Thursday still looks pretty good, for the northern half of the state at least. Partly sunny skies will accompany seasonable high temps in the mid 80s. Southern New Jersey, however, will see a chance for midday showers. (I'm not seeing a severe weather or flooding potential with this batch of rain.)
Friday will get cloudier and even cooler, with below-normal highs in the lower 80s. A round of scattered showers and thunderstorms seems a good bet for most of the state for a good part of the day.
Despite the promise of occasionally wet, unsettled weather, the upcoming weekend looks OK. I'm seeing partly sunny skies, just a few showers, and highs in the lower to mid 80s on Saturday. Then Sunday becomes the hotter day of the weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Skies will remain partly sunny with just an isolated shower.
One more cold front should clear out the "junk" from our atmosphere on Monday. Humidity levels drop, diurnal thunderstorm chances come to an end, and temperatures cool slightly. The day looks mostly cloudy, with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dry air would make for a comfortably refreshing kind of day — I love those!