The Bottom Line

The Autumnal Equinox officially arrives around 9:30 a.m. Tuesday. As we fall into fall, temperatures are about to go in the wrong direction, with warmer days and nights on the way. We have about 5 more days of almost completely dry weather in the forecast. Meanwhile, rough surf concerns continue for the Jersey Shore as Hurricane Teddy passes by New Jersey's latitude Tuesday.


It's another "jacket weather" kind of morning, with the temperature map turning blue with 30s and 40s (50s for the coast). This first day of fall is looking sunny and dry once again. Temperatures will end up in the lower 70s — slightly warmer than Monday, but still slightly below seasonal normals.

You'll really start to feel difference Tuesday night, as it will not be nearly as chilly as the past few nights. Low temperatures are expected to dip into the lower 50s, with clear skies. Winds may gust to 30 mph at times overnight.

Despite the nice weather and impending warmup, there are two howevers to note:

Hurricane Teddy will pass by our latitude Tuesday. The closest rain band will stay about 200 miles east of New Jersey. But our surf will remain quite rough, with 6+ ocean waves. A high risk of rip currents is posted once again for all Jersey Shore beaches. And we face two more rounds of minor coastal flooding during Tuesday morning's and Wednesday morning's high tide cycles. Once Teddy makes landfall on Nova Scotia, Canada early Wednesday morning, the ocean will slowly calm down.

In addition, remember the smoke from the western U.S. wildfires? Model data suggests it will make a comeback by late Tuesday afternoon. So don't be surprised if the sky looks hazy and milky and washout-out again. Just like last time, the smoke will be in the upper atmosphere, so you should not smell anything or experience any air quality issues.


Mostly sunny, breezy, and warm. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees would be seasonable in early September. So we go from a Columbus Day-ish chill to Labor Day-ish warmth. Nice!


The one bump in the road in this week's forecast. As a storm system dives south of New Jersey and as humidity ticks up slightly, we face increased cloud cover on Thursday. In addition, following guidance trends, I've had to add the slight chance of a shower on Thursday. Best chance for a few raindrops — and I do mean a few — would be the southern half of the state. Despite the clouds and shower potential, temperatures will remain mild in the upper 70s.


Looking for a beach day? Here you go. A pleasant mix of sun and clouds will meet light winds and warm temperatures. Much of the state should pop to 80 degrees Friday afternoon.


Sunny and warm, with highs near 80. That's it.

The Extended Forecast

It looks like our amazingly long stretch of dry, pleasant weather will come to an end around Sunday. Current models suggest the day will start dry, before scattered showers arrive in the afternoon. Additional unsettled weather will be possible next week, as we charge through the final days of September. Having said that, even though it won't be 80 degrees anymore, I don't see any dramatic cooldown associated with those systems.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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