Tuesday NJ weather: A break of dry weather, rain returns at night

The Bottom Line

Conditions across New Jersey on Monday ranged from “eh” to “soggy”. High temperatures ranged from 57 to 77. Tuesday is going to be warmer, drier, and brighter. But this stretch of unsettled weather won’t be done until Wednesday afternoon.

Tuesday

A good part of New Jersey got soaked overnight. And radar still shows some showers around to start your Tuesday. Some patchy fog has developed too, thanks to all that ground-level moisture, with visibility as low as a half-mile. Temperatures are comfortably cool, in the 50s and lower 60s.

Even though part of the state faces a damp early morning, the rest of the daytime hours actually looks good. We’ll see a pleasant mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will be on the warm side, mainly between the lower 70s (north) to lower 80s (south). You’ll probably feel a bit of humidity in the air too.

There are three important “howevers” in this otherwise nice forecast:
1.) The morning showers and fog.
2.) The Shore will feel a growing on-shore breeze Tuesday afternoon, probably keeping temps stuck in the 60s.
3.) Rain returns Tuesday night.

I think we’ll stay rain-free until 5 p.m. at least Tuesday. And then pockets of steady to heavy rain, along with some rumbles of thunder, will roll through New Jersey Tuesday evening and overnight. Low temperatures will drop to the mid 50s, on average.

Wednesday

An approaching cold front will push one more round of showers and thunderstorms through New Jersey from Wednesday morning through midday. (There’s at least one model solution that keeps raindrops around through the afternoon, but I favor an earlier departure.)

That front will sweep out the “junk” - the humidity, the rain, the clouds - leaving us with clearing skies and a stiff breeze through Wednesday afternoon. I think high temperatures will make it to around 70 degrees, give or take.

Thursday

In our newfound cool, dry air mass, the risk for a frost on Thursday morning seems limited to NW NJ only. Highs on Thursday will only reach the lower to (maybe) mid 60s. Below normal for early May, by a few degrees, but still a reasonably pleasant day. Early sunshine will eventually give way to late-day clouds.

Model guidance does paint few late-day raindrops on Thursday. But I’ve opted for a dry forecast (for now).

Friday & Beyond

A storm system in the neighborhood on Friday will at least drive some thick clouds through New Jersey. We’ll probably see some late-day showers and thunderstorms too (late afternoon to early evening). High temperatures will only hit about 60 - decidedly below seasonal norms.

I do not like the forecast for the weekend. Not only because it won’t be warm, nor dry. But also because it’s complicated.

At the moment, I’ve opted for mostly to partly sunny skies and lower 60s on Saturday. Then periods of rain and 60-ish on Sunday. But model guidance is still swinging widely, and there are certain elements that just don’t make sense to me. (Especially Sunday’s temperature outlook.) That is the very definition of a low-confidence forecast. We still have a few more days to get it right - stay tuned so you can plan your Mother’s Day Weekend accordingly.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.