Thursday NJ weather: The cold behind the storm

The Bottom Line

Well, Wednesday certainly was nasty. I'll do a full "post mortem" of our December nor'easter once all the snow totals are tallied. For now, I'll say that the initial burst of snow over performed in the southern half of the state (0.6" in Hammonton, 7.0" in Jackson Twp). And we definitely underperformed through the middle of the state, thanks to the sleet intrusion. I have seen a couple of double-digit snow totals in North Jersey. The fiercest 50+ mph winds were limited to the coast, thankfully, which also limited power outages. I am very pleased with how my timing forecast played out.

We are most definitely on the backside of the storm Thursday morning, and conditions will continue to improve by midday. Our final nor'easter concerns are terrible road conditions and a round of coastal flooding. It's going to feel pretty January-esque through early next week, with temperatures way below normal. We're also looking ahead to our next couple of storm systems: Sunday and next Thursday (Christmas Eve).

Thursday

As of this writing (5:30 a.m.), precipitation has already ended in South Jersey. There are still a few bands traversing northern and central NJ. As temperatures crashed overnight on the backside of the nor'easter, it's almost exclusively snowflakes and sleet falling from the sky.

The wintry mix will substantially end by 9 or 10 a.m. I'll then keep a shower or flurry in the forecast through early afternoon, just in case.

There's one big storm-related concern left, and that is coastal flooding. The extended period of nor'easterly winds and the presence of strong low pressure in the western Atlantic will lead to storm surge on the order of 2 feet. That equates to moderate category flooding up and down the Jersey Shore. High tide along the oceanfront is coming up at 9 a.m. Back bays will crest around Noon. The Delaware River could crest about a foot higher than normal Thursday afternoon.

Don't expect much snow melt Thursday. Temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 30s in the afternoon. For the areas with substantial snow cover, we'll be stuck below freezing all day. (In fact, far northern New Jersey will be stuck below 32 degrees until at least Saturday afternoon.)

Thursday night will be very cold, with low temperatures about 14 to 25 degrees (north to south).

Friday

Mostly sunny skies? Nice. Cold temperatures? Eh, not so much. Highs will only reach the mid 30s Friday afternoon — about 10 degrees below normal for mid-December.

Saturday

It's the last shopping weekend before Christmas, and it's still going to feel January-esque. Saturday's high temperatures will only push into the upper 30s (and really, that's only where there's no snow on the ground). At least winds will be light. Expect a mix of clouds and sun.

Sunday

Finally, temperatures will moderate on Sunday, popping into the 40s across central and southern New Jersey. As a weak impulse rides through our atmosphere, we'll see clouds and possibly a few snow or rain showers. (Precipitation type there will be mainly driven by time of day.)

Monday & Beyond

Temps will progress from 40s to 50s from Monday into Tuesday-Wednesday. Fairly quiet weather.

Of course, we're always scanning the horizon for our next potential weathermaker. And long-range models are in good agreement about a storm system about a week away, next Thursday. Next Thursday is... Christmas Eve.

This looks like a rain-to-snow situation, stretching from Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Hmmm. That could be very interesting! We'll keep you posted!

Best of luck cleaning up the snow and ice. As always, be smart and stay safe. And keep warm too!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.