Thursday NJ weather: Showers give way to more sunshine

The weekend is fast approaching. And there's still a lot to like about our weather outlook, with temperatures at-or-above normal and no total washout days. However, the forecast for the weekend gets particularly tricky, as a lifting warm front just complicates everything.

As expected, we're waking up to some showers on this Thursday morning. Flip on the windshield wipers, be careful on the wet roads, and you'll be fine. I'm still confident that we'll dry out by late morning, with a pleasant mix of sun and clouds into Thursday afternoon. That's not exactly a slam dunk forecast though, as both the HRRR and high-resolution NAM short-range models paint at least an isolated shower or sprinkle lingering past 10 a.m.

For Thursday's temperature forecast, I basically went with a "persistence plus one" forecast — I took Wednesday's actual high temperatures and added a degree or two. So yes, it's going to feel very similar, with temperatures very close to normal for mid-May.

Thursday night should remain quiet and comfortable, with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 50s.

Some changes are ahead for Friday, as our weather turns warmer, noticeably more humid, and a bit unsettled too. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any given time throughout the day. While I can't pinpoint the timing and geography of this storm system, I can tell you that it's not going to turn into one of those damp, dreary, persistent rain kind of days. In fact, amidst the occasional raindrops, high temps will make a run for the mid to upper 70s.

Into the weekend we go, and on Saturday we'll find ourselves under the influence of a weak cold front. That's actually a good thing, as it will keep dry air and partial sunshine over New Jersey. I would not call it a zero percent chance of a shower on Saturday, but the threat is so low I've opted to leave it out of my on-air forecast. High temperatures for Saturday afternoon should be in the seasonable lower 70s. Excellent.

Our latest forecast for Sunday represents a pretty significant shift to what I've been calling so far this week. It looks like all/most of New Jersey will end up on the warm side of a warm front. That's going to lead to almost-hot temperatures in the lower to mid 80s for most of the state! Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, and I can't rule out a few rain showers with that front in the vicinity.

The wetter day actually looks to be Monday, with a period of rain probable. Again, not a washout — high temps should hold in the lower 80s for most.

The forecast for midweek will be highly dependent on how the weekend shapes up. For now, I'm likely a slight cooldown for Tuesday with a mostly sunny sky.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.