Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of NJ through Tuesday evening

The Storm Prediction Center, in collaboration with the National Weather Service, has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 p.m. for all 21 counties in New Jersey:

Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren.

A "watch" serves as a formal "heads up" that conditions are ripe for severe weather to occur. It does not mean dangerous weather is guaranteed or occurring at the time of issuance. (That's a "warning".)

Tuesday's watch specifically notes the following severe weather impacts for New Jersey:
--Widespread damaging winds with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph
--Scattered large hail to 2 inches in diameter possible
--A tornado or two possible

In addition, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for central and southern New Jersey from 4 p.m. to 2 a.m. Several inches of rain falling in a short time period could inundate storm drains and cause waterways to overflow their banks.

Tuesday's official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts northern New Jersey in a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather, the 2rd highest of 5 risk categories. That equates to a 60% chance of severe wind, a 15% chance of severe hail, and a 5% chance of a tornado. An area of "Enhanced Risk" extends southward to about Interstate 195. Inland South Jersey is under a "Slight Risk". And even the Jersey Shore has been upgraded to a "marginal risk" for severe weather Tuesday evening.

Here's my estimation of when storms will arrive in your county, give or take an hour:

--3 p.m... Sussex
--4 p.m... Morris, Passaic, Warren
--5 p.m... Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon
--6 p.m... Burlington, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset, Union
--7 p.m... Camden, Gloucester, Ocean, Salem
--8 p.m... Atlantic, Cumberland
--9 p.m... Cape May

It is very important to remain "weather-aware" as this line of powerful thunderstorms approaches. Tuesday evening's commute will be particularly nasty. Common sense and vigilance go a long way on severe weather days — monitor changing weather conditions carefully and be prepared to seek shelter in a sturdy building as storms approach and/or when warnings are issued.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.