One more low humidity day for NJ, hot and stormy weather ahead

The Bottom Line

Close your eyes and picture a "perfect" June weather day. You probably see sunshine with some puffy fair-weather clouds. You probably feel warm temperatures, but low humidity. A light breeze runs through your hair. And rain stays away. Perfect for the beach or the pool. Or for just cruising around with the window rolled down.

That is exactly what is in the forecast for Wednesday. I have no hesitation in calling it a gorgeous day, from start to finish.

Some changes arrive for Thursday, as both temperatures and humidity increase. It will still be a pleasant day, just sweatier and more summerlike.

Friday is the only day with real weather concerns. There will be two big weather stories on Friday: Heat and thunderstorms.

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Wednesday

I already told you: Beautiful!

Sun and clouds. Low humidity. Dry weather. Light winds, out of the west up to 15 mph. And seasonable temperatures.

We are starting the day primarily in the 50s. Look for highs around 75 to 80 degrees Wednesday afternoon. The Jersey Shore will end up a bit cooler, as a sea breeze kicks in. Most beaches will be held to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday night stays quiet, clear, and comfortable. Lows should dip to around the lower 60s.

Thursday

Noticeably warmer and more humid. And therefore, more summerlike.

High temperatures will shoot into the mid 80s on Thursday. That is akin to a typical midsummer day in New Jersey.

We will see lots of hazy sunshine. And, despite the heat and humidity, the chance of a popup shower is very low.

Friday

Friday will be downright hot. Inland high temperatures surge to around 90 degrees, although the Shore should be much cooler. Humidity levels will be moderate to high, pushing the heat index (the summertime "feels like" temperature) well into the 90s.

Friday will start partly sunny and breezy.

And then, an approaching cold front will fire off a round of scattered thunderstorms over New Jersey. We are zeroing in on the afternoon and evening hours as the most likely time frame for storms. I hesitate to get too specific on timing, but my best guess would be first storms in NW NJ around 3 p.m. and final showers clearing the SE coast by 11 p.m. Friday.

Given the heat and humidity in the air, any storms that form will likely be strong to severe. That means brief downpours, gusts of wind, and lots of lightning. The most potent storms will be found to the north and west, as they initially arrive. It looks like general storm activity will dwindle as the squall line and front approach the southern coast.

Saturday & Sunday

This weekend is the Father's Day Weekend. It is also the final weekend of Spring, with the Summer Solstice coming up next Thursday.

And the forecast looks great. Humidity will fall away again by Saturday morning, leaving conditions nice and comfortable.

Saturday will be sunny and warm, with highs near 80 degrees.

Sunday brings in quite a few clouds, but we stay dry. Highs again will reach about 80.

One possible hesitation for beach-goers this weekend. The surf may get a bit rough, with an elevated risk of rip currents, as a strong coastal system passes off-shore. Make sure you pay attention to the latest Jersey Shore Report and follow all posted signs, flags, and lifeguard instructions.

The Extended Forecast

The long-range forecast for next week is still looking hot and dry.

That's bad, because we really could use some rain after running a rainfall deficit over the last 30 to 60 days. (As I said in that linked article, the drought situation is not serious yet — but it could become a big problem by mid to late summer.)

And at least one forecast model shows temperatures possibly flirting with 100 degrees by midweek next week. A scorching hot end to the school year for NJ kids and teachers.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.