NJ’s Thanksgiving holiday weekend forecast: Unsettled warmth to blustery cold

Happy Thanksgiving Eve! Wednesday will be an unusually mild November day, with 50s in the morning and 60s in the afternoon. Our weather will be unsettled though, with a couple rounds of spotty showers and even a thunderstorm along the way. After sunset, a brisk westerly wind will kick up and temperatures will tumble again. Thanksgiving Day will end up 20+ degrees colder, barely in the 40s, with wind gusts up to about 30 mph. At least it will be dry with periods of sun and clouds. Our weather will remain cold although sunny for Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. The holiday weekend will end with clouds and rain on Sunday before things turn potentially interesting next week.

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Wednesday NJ weather: Hit-or-miss showers, one day of 60s

Wednesday is, infamously, one of the busiest travel days of the entire year. And as you are flitting around preparing for Thanksgiving Day, you may have to dodge some raindrops. But you may not need a jacket at least.

Temperatures are eerily mild to start the day, mainly in the 50s across New Jersey. And we will see highs in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. That is well above normal for late November. (In fact, I would not rule out someone in the state touching 70 degrees — that would flirt with the record high for this date.)

We will be watching for two pushes of rain on Wednesday. The first is just wrapping up Wednesday morning, with some spotty showers brushing up against southern and coastal New Jersey. One more round of hit-or-miss showers is possible this afternoon through early evening, as our cold front approaches. There could be an isolated downpour or rumble of thunder. But to be clear, the majority of Wednesday will be dry. Just mostly cloudy, a bit foggy in spots, and generally unsettled.

Around 7 or 8 o'clock Wednesday evening, a cold front will put an end to rain chances, kick up a brisk westerly wind, and open the door to much colder air once again. Gusts to 30 mph are possible through the overnight, as temperatures drop quite quickly.

Lows will probably end up in the upper 30s or so. Not a freeze for most of the state, although biting wind chills could be in the 20s. So we are definitely back to bundling up.

Thursday NJ weather: Cold turkey

Thanksgiving Day will be windy and cold, but at least our weather stays dry.

We have been talking all week about possible issues with the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons. If sustained winds peak over 23 mph or gusts reach 34 mph, the balloons unfortunately do not fly. My latest forecast keeps wind speeds just below those thresholds — but you know parade organizers, public safety officials, and the legendary Al Roker will be watching closely.

Thermometers will not budge much on Thursday, only rising into the lower 40s at best. We will see periods of sun and clouds throughout the day, as that bitter wind continues to blow.

Friday NJ weather: Sunny and blustery

More of the same is expected on Black Friday.

The morning will be a freeze for most of New Jersey, with many low temps in the 20s.

High temperatures will only reach around 40 degrees. With continuing wind gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range, it will be another blustery day for sure.

At least Friday will be sunny. There is a good chance for some flurries flying around. (And decaying cloud cover from those snowflakes as a result.)

Saturday NJ weather: Sunny and calm

The wind will finally quiet down on Saturday. But no warmup just yet.

It will be sunny and dry, with highs again only around 40 degrees. That is still more than 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Two storm systems to watch

Looking long-term, there are two more weather headlines worth mentioning as we close out November and begin December.

First, the holiday weekend will end with another round of rain. As travelers hit the road again on Sunday, it looks like a batch of wet weather will accompany them throughout New Jersey. Rainfall looks light in general, totaling about a quarter-inch. While it looks like mainly "liquid" rain, I could see some wintry mix coming into play in the colder northwestern corner of New Jersey. (Depending on timing and temperatures.)

The other big thing to watch is the next next storm system in line, modeled to arrive around the Tuesday time frame. There is still a strong signal leaning toward wintry weather for at least part of New Jersey.

At the moment, I would say we are in for a complicated snow north / rain south kind of event, with significant snowfall possible for North Jersey. It is still very early, of course — a lot can change in six days. But it is time to declare accumulating snow a plausible scenario here. And especially because of the holiday weekend, I want to make sure people are aware of the possibility.

For now, we sit and watch. If the snow potential continues to look solid, we will start to dig into more concrete timing/totals details on Saturday (72 hours out). Not before.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.