The Bottom Line

Do you like warm temperatures and low humidity? Then you’re going to love this week’s forecast, with 80s (at least) on the way.

We do have to keep fire danger and spiralling drought conditions in mind, as we look ahead to mainly dry, warming weather. Our next chance of soaking rain probably won’t show up until next weekend, at the earliest.

Monday

Temperatures will be very similar to Sunday, with a brighter sky and lower rain chances.

We’re kicking off the new workweek with temperatures in the 40s. On the edge of “jacket weather,” especially since thermometers will shoot up quickly around 8-9 a.m. We’ll top out in the lower to mid 70s Monday afternoon, as early sunshine leads to clouds building later. That’s very close to normal for mid-May.

The chance of a spot shower can’t be ruled out in the late afternoon to early evening hours, but it will be nothing widespread or impactful. (I even opted to leave the “rain” icon out of my 5 Day Forecast.)

Monday night will be quiet and comfortable. Most low temperatures will only dip into the lower 50s. A signal of the warmup that’s coming through midweek.

Tuesday

Although one model (the NAM) paints scattered showers over New Jersey, I’m fairly confident the storm system in question will “ride the ridge” and end up well north of us. Tuesday looks dry and mostly sunny. High temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 70s. 80+ is a possibility in a few spots. Dew points tick upward, from the 40s to the 50s. Aside from warmer mornings, you likely won’t otherwise notice.

Wednesday

Definitely warm. Highs soar into the lower 80s. Even mainland beaches could hit 80+. (Barrier islands, not quite 80, thanks to that 58-61 degree ocean water.)

But dew points will stay in the 50s. That’s not sticky or steamy or humid at all. It’s dry and comfortable - wonderful news!

Skies look bright and sunny Wednesday, with not a raindrop around. Enjoy!

Thursday

Still very warm, as highs push into the lower-mid 80s. Increasing clouds will make for a less-bright, but-still-pleasant day.

Our next chance of rain will come from a backdoor cold front Thursday evening into Friday morning. And even then, it’s just going to be a few showers, centered over northern and eastern NJ.

The Extended Forecast

The temperature effects of that return to more unsettled weather is uncertain. I think thermometers will scale back into the 70s for Friday and the weekend. I also believe humidity levels will ramp up a bit, leading to a stickier feel in the air by Saturday.

In addition, a couple more shortwaves are expected to produce wet weather over New Jersey. And unfortunately, models show those raindrops impacting the weekend. Right now, the best chances of rain are during the day Saturday and late Sunday. As usual, I’ll caution you to stay tuned, as 6-7 day forecasts are rarely accurate enough to drastically change plans.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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