One more gorgeous day before super-soaker thunderstorms return to NJ

The Bottom Line

New Jersey can look forward to one more gorgeous day — filled with sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and dry air — before unsettled weather returns. Monday looks great. But the forecast for Tuesday and part of Wednesday turns very humid and stormy once again. The big concern is not "just rain," but big downpours that could lead to poor drainage flooding and some travel headaches, along with the chance of a few stronger storms producing gusty winds. Sunshine and low humidity return Thursday, although we will have to watch how Canadian wildfire smoke could affect our atmosphere and air quality heading toward next weekend.

Weather Hazards

There is one, and only one, major weather hiccup in this week's forecast: A period of stormy weather from Tuesday into Wednesday. That is when humidity will surge, the air will turn thick and steamy, and scattered thunderstorms could produce very heavy rain.

Forecast models suggest pockets of 1 to 3+ inches of rain will be possible. Just like on Saturday, that is enough to raise flooding alarm bells, especially for poor drainage areas, low-lying roads, and spots that have already been soaked recently.

The strongest thunderstorm cells could also produce damaging winds. Hail and an isolated tornado can not be completely ruled out. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a couple of "weather aware" days.

Meanwhile, smoke from Canadian wildfires has largely dissipated and moved away from New Jersey. Another weak plume of smoke is forecast to push into the atmosphere late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, the low concentration of smoke particles, along with rain in the forecast, means air quality should not be a major issue this time around.

Climatological Context

July 20 is the 201st day of 2026.

Normal high temperatures range from 86 to 87 degrees, while normal low temperatures range from 67 to 70 degrees.

July is, on average, New Jersey's hottest and wettest month of the year. New Jersey is now in the "dog days of summer," on average the hottest stretch of the year.

Monday

No smoke, no heat, no storms (for now), and barely any humidity either. A beautiful combination for mid to late July.

There is a hint of coolness in the air Monday morning, thanks to clear skies and very low humidity. Temperatures are starting the day mainly in the 50s and 60s.

Monday will be mostly sunny, dry, and comfortably warm by the afternoon. High temperatures will reach about 80 to 85 degrees. Right in that summer sweet spot.

Clouds will start to increase Monday night. Humidity too. But the evening and overnight hours will stay quiet and pleasant. Low temperatures will settle into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Tuesday will be a very different weather day.

Humidity shoots way up, with dew points eventually back in the 70s, making the air feel thicker and steamier. And the atmosphere will be loaded with moisture, helping to fuel the development of occasional thunderstorms, starting as soon as late morning.

The main concern is heavy rain and flooding. These storms could become super-soakers, producing pockets of very heavy rain over a relatively short period of time. Travel could get tricky where downpours set up, with ponding, big puddles, and poor visibility.

A few storms could also become strong to severe, with gusty winds the top concern. Tuesday is a day to keep an eye and an ear on the sky, and keep plans as flexible as possible.

High temperatures will only reach around 80 degrees given the cloud cover and rain.

Wednesday

The chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms will continue Wednesday, especially through the first part of the day. "Spotty" means coverage will be less than Tuesday. However, the atmosphere will still be humid and unsettled, so a few pockets of heavy stuff could linger.

We should start to see some improvement late-day Wednesday. Breaks of sun are possible, with a prominent northwest breeze picking up.

It will be a warm and slightly less humid day, with high temperatures kicking into the mid 80s. Not a washout, but not a perfect day either.

Thursday & Beyond

Thursday brings the payoff. Sunshine returns, humidity plummets, and high temperatures land in the upper 70s. I call that refreshing.

The end of the week looks good too, as high temperatures rise through the 80s for Friday and the weekend. Our current forecast shows dry weather and manageable humidity levels, which would be phenomenal. The one thing to watch will be that weak plume of Canadian wildfire smoke potentially moving back our way. At this point, smoke concentrations look low, and air quality problems are not expected. Still, it will be worth monitoring.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.