Heads up, NJ: There will be a narrow window for nasty, gusty thunderstorms Monday

UPDATE as of 11:35 a.m. Monday...

A Tornado Watch was just issued by the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service for most of New Jersey until this evening.

ORIGINAL POST from 9:16 a.m. Monday...

With the official first day of spring coming up on Friday, we are now coming into New Jersey's prime thunderstorm season. We just had one round of noisy weather last Wednesday. And now we look ahead to another unsettled, stormy day for Monday as warm, humid air and plenty of lift help thunderstorms develop and grow over New Jersey. Everyone in New Jersey will likely see stormy weather at some point Monday. But the questions are: When will they pass overhead? And just how powerful and impactful will those storms be? Severe weather — meaning conditions that could endanger lives and property — is possible, so it is important to take this one seriously. This is a "weather aware" or "eyes on the sky" kind of day for sure.

Get our free mobile app

Timing

So far Monday morning, we have already seen some pockets of rain around New Jersey. It is foggy and relatively mild, with temperatures in the 50s to start the day. Highs will push into the 60s later on, providing plenty of energy to fuel future thunderstorms.

Forecast models suggest that spotty to scattered showers and thunderstorms may popup at any time. These would likely be more of your run-of-the-mill, garden variety storms, rather than the big, bad, dangerous storms that will come later. It is still a very good idea to "head indoors when thunder roars" and delay travel if a heavy downpour is overhead. But I don't think rain will be a widespread problem through Monday morning, midday, and early afternoon.

Prime time for strong to severe thunderstorms will be from about 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. That is when a wave of energy arriving from the west will start to feed on our fairly warm, fairly humid atmosphere. Two important factors to keep in mind: 1.) Any breaks of sunshine Monday afternoon will serve to "cook" or further destabilize the atmosphere, raising the severe weather threat level. 2.) The severe weather threat and thunderstorm intensity should dial back at least a little bit beyond sunset Monday evening (7pm).

So timing works in our favor here. The worst weather, and specifically the most significant tornado and severe wind threat, will be southwest of New Jersey, before sunset. However, there is still a narrow window of time and geography where things could get really nasty here. Hence, the alarm bells and special treatment.

Another push of somewhat weaker showers and storms is possible through Monday evening and early Tuesday morning. The atmosphere should be pretty zapped of energy and moisture by this point, so severe weather seems unlikely overnight.

Biggest Impacts: Wind & Rain

First of all, it's going to be a pretty windy day in general, with gusts potentially topping 40 mph outside of any thunderstorms. A Wind Advisory covers southern, coastal, and central New Jersey from 2 p.m. Monday to 2 a.m. Tuesday morning. The strongest wind gusts will likely occur along the Jersey Shore, as usual.

The cluster of thunderstorms that arrive in the late afternoon and early evening hours will also pose a significant wind threat, possibly pushing out gusts of 60+ mph. That is the threshold for severe (dangerous or damaging) winds. The most prone to see such powerful gusts will be the western edge of New Jersey. More specifically, the southwestern portion of the state — the I-295 corridor, if you will — which will be the first segment of New Jersey to see the main line of severe thunderstorms late Monday.

These storms will also be capable of producing very heavy rain, which could severely reduce visibility and traction. Flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas is possible. The good news is these storms will be moving very quickly, so they won't just "sit and pour" for an extended period of time.

Other Issues: Lightning, Hail, Tornadoes

By definition, every thunderstorm contains lightning. Therefore, every thunderstorm is potentially dangerous. As we unfortunately saw several times in summer 2025, lightning can even be deadly for those outside and unprotected. So please seek shelter in a sturdy building when storms approach.

Small hail is a minor concern this time around. The atmosphere will not be not overly conducive to severe ice chunks falling from the sky.

A tornado or two is a possibility, especially along the western edge of the state. (Although I don't want to dwell too much on the hyper-dramatic tornadic threat because, as I mentioned, the greatest risk will be southwest of New Jersey.)

A tornado is a very localized (small) but very powerful column of swirling air. Scary stuff, as I'm sure you're well aware. There's not much we can do to prepare for this possibility — just stay aware of changing weather conditions, and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary.

Action Plan: What Do You Do?

Now... Consider your plans for Monday very carefully, especially if you have outdoor activities in the afternoon and evening. The later the day gets, the more likely you are to see stormy weather in the neighborhood. Consider carrying an umbrella or grabbing the rain gear.

What a Watch is Issued... A watch is a formal "heads up" that dangerous storms may occur over a wide area, usually issued for a period of 6 to 8 hours. It is just confirmation that the ingredients for severe weather are coming together as expected. When a watch is issued, it is time to literally "watch" the weather carefully. If the sky starts to darken up and/or you can hear thunder and/or a more serious/urgent warning is issued, be ready to seek shelter immediately.

When a Warning is Issued... A warning means bad weather is occurring now or imminent for a very specific area, usually issued for a period of 30 to 60 minutes. When a warning is issued, it is time to seek shelter immediately. In case of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, that usually means going inside. In case of a Tornado Warning or High Wind Warning, you want to take extra precautions like going to the lower level of a sturdy building (like a basement) and staying away from windows.

What's Next?

Behind the storms will come a strong cold front, bringing another burst of cool air into New Jersey just in time for St. Patrick's Day on Tuesday. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees, with a chilly breeze. Just another classic March temper tantrum from Mother Nature.

Temperatures should moderate back to seasonable or above normal levels by Thursday or Friday, into the 50s. Next cold fronts Friday night and Sunday night produce some rain and possibly more thunderstorms. Temperatures are uncertain for next week — while long-range models previously favored another warmup, I'm now seeing a cooler trend through the end of March.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.