NJ weather: Much calmer and seasonably warm this week
The Bottom Line
Compared to the tropical humidity and constant thunderstorm threat last week, this new week looks incredibly tame. There will be a few showers and thunderstorms around - primarily on Monday and Wednesday. And while high temperatures may flirt with 90 degrees for a few days, humidity levels will not be extreme.
We're starting the new week with a fairly comfortable Monday morning. Temperatures are on either side of 70 degrees. And dew points are firmly in the 60s - sticky, but not steamy. Those are the two numbers we'll be tracking carefully this week. (As we do every summer, of course.)
Here's a fun fact: July 18th and 19th are, on average, New Jersey's hottest days of the year. (According to my own "back of the envelope" calculations, that is.) That means it's all downhill from now through mid-January, the coldest time of the calendar year!
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 80s across the state - just a hair below seasonal norms. A generally pleasant day, although with two weather nuisances.
The first is a bank of clouds hanging over southern and eastern NJ. The farther north and west you are, the more sunshine you'll see.
In addition, there is a chance of showers. Mainly in the afternoon to early evening (2 p.m. to 6 p.m.) And especially for southern and coastal New Jersey.
I don't expect anything severe or incredibly dramatic - just some raindrops. There is a chance that a pocket of rain gets "stuck" due to poor steering currents and/or training/back-building. In that case, there could be some big puddles, although significant flooding seems unlikely.
Skies will clear out Monday night. Low temperatures should dip into the fairly comfortable upper 60s.
Heating up again. Inland high temperatures should shoot into the upper 80s to around 90. It will be cooler along the Jersey Shore, closer to 80. I'm calling it mostly sunny and probably dry - so stay cool and enjoy.
Another sticky, summery day. At least to start. High temps will once again push to 90, under partly sunny skies.
An approaching cold front looks pretty healthy, capable of producing a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday afternoon.
The big question is one of available moisture - some models do paint a mainly dry picture for much of the state. As dew points pop back to about 70, I'm leaning toward a wetter solution. But again, it's not going to rain all day - just a brief shot of (potentially loud) stormy weather.
By Thursday morning, we will be entrenched in cooler air. Not only that, but it is one of the driest air masses we've seen in quite some time.
High temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points dropping to the 50s. Wow, what a beautiful summer day! There may be some residual cloud cover, so let's call it partly sunny overall.
Thursday night, some temps may dip into the 50s, thanks to that lack of humidity. If so, it would easily be NJ's coolest night in almost a month.
The Extended Forecast
Friday looks good too. Still partly sunny and still deliciously dry. Temps look to rise into the near-normal mid 80s.
One model - the Euro - does paint some late-day shower over New Jersey on Friday. Given the dry air, I'm not convinced that will come to fruition.
The weekend forecast is a little shaky, but I do like what I see. A bright, hot day Saturday as thermometers potentially flirt with 90 degrees again. If that outlook plays out, should be a positive day for pool, beach, etc.
Signs are pointing to rain arriving at some point on Sunday. GFS says morning. Euro says evening. Huh, that's helpful. Let's wait a few more days to make a more definitive call, shall we?